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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
Top cret
missile (range of 120 to 130 km) roughly comparable
to the US Lance, is now with at least one division in
the western USSR. It offers major improvements in
range and accuracy over the FROG, which it is
replacing." The SS-21 evidently has a cluster-munition
159. Tactical Missiles. Ground force nuclear deliv- warhead in addition to the usual nuclear, chemical,
ery systems consist mainly of the FROG, Scud, and and conventional warheads. A cluster-munition war-
Scaleboard missiles. (See figure II-26.) The Soviets head would significantly improve the SS-21's utility
have 3] FROG battalions with some 125 launchers during conventional warfare against soft targets such
and1lScOud bargades with 150 launches in Eastern as personnel and equipment in the open or NATO air
defense and electronics installations. The SS-22, a
Europe. They have another 65 FROG battalions (260
launchers) and 20 Scud brigades (240 launchers) in replacement missile for the Scaleboard, became
their military districts opposite NATO. The Scud has a issued to some Scaleboard units in the USSR. It is
range of about 300 km -and the FROG about 70 km.
to be located in Eastern Europe, but we estimate that "The circular error probable (CEP) of the SS-21 is estimated to
six Scaleboard units with 72 launchers are part of the be 200 to 300 meters at two-thirds the maximum range of 120 to 130
kilometers. This is a significant improvement in accuracy over the
forces in the USSR earmarked for use against NATO. FROG-7, with a CEP of 400 meters at two-thirds the maximum
NSWP forces have 310 FROG and Scud launchers. range of 70 kilometers. CEP is a conventional index of accuracy
defined as the radius of the circle centered on the intended target
160. The Soviets are improving the quality of their within which there is a 50-percent probability that an arriving
tactical ballistic missile forces. The SS-21, a new missile warhead will fall.
Selected Warsaw Pact Tactical Surface-to-Surface Missiles 'Figure 11-26
FROG-7 SS-21 Scud B SS-12/22 Scaleboard
No
drawing -
g available ? -o-
Year operational 1965 1976 1961 1965/1977
Range (km)
Minimum 12 10-15 50 200
Maximum 70 120 300 925
Warhead yield (kt) 10 0.5 10 10
200 10 300 300
200 500
CEP (m) at 400 20O-300 500-900 700-800/300-400
two-thirds range*
Propulsion Single stage- Single stage- Single stage- Two stage-
solid solid liquid solid
'CEP (circular error probable) is a conventional index of accuracy
defined as the radius of a circle centered on the intended target
within which there is a 50-percent probability that an arriving
missile warhead will fall.
579030 an cu
11-46

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.