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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
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Warsaw Pact Tactical Nuclear Figure I-25 Table 11-10
Forces Opposite NATO,
1969 and 1979 Warsaw Pact Tactical Nuclear Forces
Opposite NATO *
3,000 January 1979
In Eastern Europe In the
Soviet NSWP USSR Total
2,000 ----
Tactical Aircraft
Fighters 765 - 580 1,345
Fighter-Bombers 450 135 650 . 1,235
1,000 Light Bombers 30 - 30 60
Total 1,245 135 1,260 2,640
Tactical Missile Launchers
0 Tactical Tactical Nuclear- FROG 125 185 260 570
Aircraft Missile Capable SS-1/Scud 150 125 240 515
1969 1979 Launchers Artillery SS-12/Scaleboard
1969 1979 Pieces (includes SS-22) - - 72 72
Secret 1979 SS-21 - - 6 6
Total 275 310 578 1,163577633 1-79 CIA
Nuclear Artillery
203-mm SP Guns/Towed
accuracy of their current missile systems and the ;un-Howitzers - - 144 144
lack of timely, accurate reconnaissance data on 240-mm SP Mortars/
small, mobile targets. Towed Mortars - - 144 144
- Development and deployment of a new genera- Total - - 288 288
tion of tactical nuclear delivery systems with * See footnote to table II-, following paragraph 3.
characteristics superior to those of their predeces-
sors. Newer models- of Soviet tactical aircraft
have greatly improved range and payload capa-
bilities, and more effective tactical surface-to- 157. Tactical Aircraft. Numerically, the most im-
surface missiles are being deployed. portant nuclear delivery systems in Eastern Europe
are Soviet tactical aircraft. Virtually all Soviet fighter
155. The Soviets have a variety of tactical nuclear and fighter-bomber units in Eastern Europe conduct
delivery systems in their ground and tactical air forces training and exercise activities which indicate a mis-
deployed opposite NATO. (See table II-10.) Nuclear sion of delivering nuclear bombs. As of 1975, however,
weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only about one-third of the pilots in these Soviet units
general purpose ships, submarines, and aircraft. were qualified by Soviet standards to drop nuclear
bombs. We expect that the number of Soviet tactical
156. The Soviets have given their East European air units in the USSR which have nuclear missions will
allies reason to believe that they will be provided increase as the Soviets continue to reequip units with
nuclear weapons in wartime. The NSWP national new, nuclear-capable aircraft.
commands, particularly the Polish and Czechoslovak 158. The role of Frontal Aviation for delivering
commands, evidently train and plan for the eventual- tactical nuclear weapons is expanding.
ity that they will receive nuclear warheads in wartime.
Fronts commanded by non-Soviets have also been
notionally allocated nuclear weapons in recent Pact
exercises. In addition, we have information that
NSWP war plans may include procedures for. the
transfer of Soviet nuclear warheads to NSWP missile
units. Thus, while we have no direct evidence regard-
ing Soviet intentions, we judge that NSWP tactical
aircraft and missiles, as shown in table 11-10, are likely
to be used for nuclear operations in Europe.
11-45
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.