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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
Western Europe by a bombing offensive. The large amphibious exercises with the Soviets. In the Baltic,
and repetitive bombing attacks necessary for such an however, where large combined operations recently
offensive would reduce the availability of aircraft for have occurred, the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans
other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the equivalent of four naval infantry regiments
the battle for air superiority and the destruction of totaling some 8,000 men. Although the Polish and East
NATO nuclear delivery systems. Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than
probably commit few bombers against port facilities half of their assault troops in a single lift, turnaround
early in a war. If the Pact achieved air superiority in time for subsequent lifts could be rapid.
Western Europe, and if a large part of its bomber 152. Control of the airspace over an amphibious
force remained, a systematic bombing campaign landing area in Europe would be a prereqmisite for
against ports could be initiated. In a theater nuclear establishing a beachhead. Because the majority of
war, the Soviets also would interdict shipping b likely Warsaw Pact amphibious objectives would bemissile and air strikes on ports in Western Europe and, within the range of Soviet or East European airfields,in an intercontinental war, those in North America as land-based tactical aircraft could be made available to
support the assault forces. The Soviet Fitter C/D
149. Pact intentions for using mines to interdict regiment in the Baltic Fleet Air Force and some 50
merchant shipping are not clear. While some Soviet MIG-17 Frescos of the Polish Navy probably would
submarines may have a wartime mission to lay mines support Pact amphibious operations in the Baltic Sea.
in restricted water such as in the approaches to a few
key NATO ports, they would not have the capability
to mine large areas of the North Atlantic littoral D Theater Nuclear Forces
densely and still perform other missions. Soviet surface
ships and aircraft would be unable to lay and replenish
minefields effectively in areas of NATO air 153. Pact nuclear weapons which could be em-
superiority. ployed in a theater war against NATO are of two
distinct types: tactical nuclear weapons in the hands of
Amphibious Capabilities Soviet general purpose forces and Soviet strategic
150. The Soviets have some 6,000 men in their nuclear weapons.
Naval Infantry forces opposite NATO. The basic unit Tactical Nuclear Forces
is the naval rifle regiment, totaling about 1,900 men in
three infantry battalions, a tank battalion, and sup- 154. Since the late 1960s the tactical forces have
porting units. Three regiments have been identified, especially experienced important changes in both size
one in each western fleet area. The Naval Infantry, and capabilities. (See figure II-25.) These changes have
depends heavily on its tanks and armored vehicles, but included:
is constituted primarily for mobility rather than for
firepower. Its tasks are to spearhead amphibious as- -Significant increases in the inventory of tactical
saults against mainland and island beachheads and to nuclear delivery systems in Europe. The expan-
attack in the rear of enemy formations-in both cases sion has already included about a one-third
in support of the ground campaign. In some cases, increase in the number of tactical surface-to-
Naval Infantry units would be immediately reinforced surface missile launchers and a tripling of nu-
from the sea by ground forces trained for follow-up clear delivery aircraft in Central Europe since
1970.
amphibious landings.
151. The amphibious elements of NSWP countries - Increases in the number of tactical nuclear weap-
would be available to augment the Soviet Naval ons the Soviets plan to use in Central Europe.
Infantry forces. In the Black Sea area, the combined Nuclear weapons allocations that we have noted
strength of the Soviet, Bulgarian, and Romanian am- in exercises conducted by the critical Central
phibious forces total some 4,400 men. However, the Front have tripled.
Bulgarian and Romanian elements are not nearly as - Increases in the warhead yields of tactical sur-
well trained as their Soviet counterparts and do not face-to-surface missiles. The motivation for the
have sufficient lift capacity to carry all of their men larger yields is unclear, but the Soviets may
and equipment in a single assault operation. These perceive a requirement for greater areas of de-
countries do not usually engage in combined struction to compensate for the relatively poor
11-44
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.