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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
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and surface search radars. (See figure 11-24.)
133. Other Soviet forces opposite NATO-desig,
nated primarily for coastal ASW-are much more
numerous, but their individual capabilities are gener-
ally poorer. These include about 155 minor surface
combatants with sonars, about 45 short- and medium-
range diesel submarines, nearly 60 short-range fixed-
' The holders of this vice are the Central Intelligence Agency wing ASW aircraft, and about 100 shore-based ASW
and the Director, National Security Agency. helicopters. In addition, the Polish, East German, and
to a lesser degree the Bulgarian and Romanian Navies
have a variety of units which are trained for coastal
Selected Soviet Aircraft , Figure 11-24 ASW defense and are being integrated into the com-
for Antisubmarine Warfare bined Pact fleets in the Baltic and Black Seas.
IL-38 May TU-142 Bear F
bottom iew
Year operational 1968 1971 135. Effective ASW depends in part on Pact sur-
veillance capabilities, which, outside coastal waters,
Payload (kg) Sonobuoys, Sonobuoys, are extremely limited. This limitation is primarily
torpedoes, and torpedoes, and caused by Soviet failure to develop long-range under-
depth chargesb depth chargesh sea surveillance systems. Soviet efforts to achieve such
(5,400) (8,500) a capability would, in any event, he constrained
Maximum radiusa 1,350 2,050 or 3,150c because the Pact lacks sites from which major Western
(nm) naval operating areas could be monitored. Further-
more, if the Soviets were to emplace an underwater
a. Radius values include allowance for three hours of loiter time surveillance system on Pact territory, its effectiveness
on station, would be limited because the waters along Pact shores
are for the most part shallow and therefore unsuitable
for carrying sounds over long distances.
c. See paragraphs 131 and 132 of chapter II for differing agency
views on the radius of the Bear F. 20 The holders of this view are the Director, Defense Intelli-
gence Agency, the Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of
the Navy; and the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Depart-
5902 ,, u nmentof the Air Force.
11-40
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.