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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80 to about
such as ports, and which has a range of 450 nm (830 200 nm (145 to 360 km). There are also about 40
km). TU-22 Blinder A's which could be used for bombing
118. In addition to cruise-missile submarines, the and mining. The naval Badgers, which first entered
Soviet western fleets include 30 nuclear-powered and service in 1957, are relatively large and slow moving
sovet weston rngfleets inc e 3,a n clss e-powere d by current standards. They are highly vulnerable tosome 59 long-ranige I-, Z-, arid T-class diesel-powered mdr i eesssc stoeo eldfne
attack submarines. Most Soviet nuclear attack subma- nodern air defenses such as those of well-defended
rines are fast-27 to 32 knots-and, despite relatively- aircraft carrier task groups. Improvements in their
missile and electronic warfare systems, however, have
high noise radiation, could be effective in antiship maintained them as firstline strike aircraft.
operations. Soviet long-range diesel submarines are
much slower than the nuclear units. They are particu- 120. The introduction of some 40 Backfire bombers
larly susceptible to detection when snorkeling, but can into the Baltic and Black Sea Fleet air forces to date
remain submerged for extended periods. In addition has significantly improved the strike capability of the.
there are medium- and short-range diesel units which Soviet Navy against NATO~surface forces." Because of
would likely be employed in areas closer to the Soviet the modern, higher speed air-to-surface missile it
Union. carries, its variable flight profiles, its maneuverability,
1.19. The Soviet Navy has some 215 missile- and its high-speed capabilities, the Backfire has a
.higher probability of penetrating NATO naval air
equipped bomber aircraft opposite NATO for antiship
attacks. (See figure II-22.) They include about 175 See NIE 11-3/8-78 and section D of this chapter (paragraph
TU-16 Badgers and some 40 Backfires. These aircraft 179 and figure I1-30) for details of the differing agency estimates
carry four types of missiles with various flight profiles of the Backfire's capabilities.
Soviet Naval Strike Aircraft Figure 11-22a
TU-16 Badger TU-22 Blinder Backfire
C C (modified) G
Year operational 1960 1971 1965 1962 1974
Payload One AS-2 Two AS-5 Two AS-5 3,000 kilograms
or or (bombs)
two AS-6 two AS-6
Maximum 1,450 1,150 1,150 , 1,740 See figure Il-30b for differing
unrefu radiu (nm)0 1,15agency assessments of theunrefueled radius (nm) Backfire's performance
characteristics.
Maximum radius with 2,050 1,850 1,850 2,350
prestrike refueling (nm)
579026 minc
11-36

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.