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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80 to about
such as ports, and which has a range of 450 nm (830 200 nm (145 to 360 km). There are also about 40
km). TU-22 Blinder A's which could be used for bombing
118. In addition to cruise-missile submarines, the and mining. The naval Badgers, which first entered
Soviet western fleets include 30 nuclear-powered and service in 1957, are relatively large and slow moving
sovet weston rngfleets inc e 3,a n clss e-powere d by current standards. They are highly vulnerable tosome 59 long-ranige I-, Z-, arid T-class diesel-powered mdr i eesssc stoeo eldfne
attack submarines. Most Soviet nuclear attack subma- nodern air defenses such as those of well-defended
rines are fast-27 to 32 knots-and, despite relatively- aircraft carrier task groups. Improvements in their
missile and electronic warfare systems, however, have
high noise radiation, could be effective in antiship maintained them as firstline strike aircraft.
operations. Soviet long-range diesel submarines are
much slower than the nuclear units. They are particu- 120. The introduction of some 40 Backfire bombers
larly susceptible to detection when snorkeling, but can into the Baltic and Black Sea Fleet air forces to date
remain submerged for extended periods. In addition has significantly improved the strike capability of the.
there are medium- and short-range diesel units which Soviet Navy against NATO~surface forces." Because of
would likely be employed in areas closer to the Soviet the modern, higher speed air-to-surface missile it
Union. carries, its variable flight profiles, its maneuverability,
1.19. The Soviet Navy has some 215 missile- and its high-speed capabilities, the Backfire has a
.higher probability of penetrating NATO naval air
equipped bomber aircraft opposite NATO for antiship
attacks. (See figure II-22.) They include about 175 See NIE 11-3/8-78 and section D of this chapter (paragraph
TU-16 Badgers and some 40 Backfires. These aircraft 179 and figure I1-30) for details of the differing agency estimates
carry four types of missiles with various flight profiles of the Backfire's capabilities.
Soviet Naval Strike Aircraft Figure 11-22a
TU-16 Badger TU-22 Blinder Backfire
C C (modified) G
Year operational 1960 1971 1965 1962 1974
Payload One AS-2 Two AS-5 Two AS-5 3,000 kilograms
or or (bombs)
two AS-6 two AS-6
Maximum 1,450 1,150 1,150 , 1,740 See figure Il-30b for differing
unrefu radiu (nm)0 1,15agency assessments of theunrefueled radius (nm) Backfire's performance
characteristics.
Maximum radius with 2,050 1,850 1,850 2,350
prestrike refueling (nm)
579026 minc
11-36

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.