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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
TopSert
ions task forces would be accomplished primarily by areas of NATO air superiority. A pair of radar satel-
land-based electronic surveillance of the task force's lites could, under optimum conditions, provide cover-
high-frequency radio transmissions supported by satel- age of 60 to 80 percent of the likely carrier and
lites for electronic intercept and radar reconnaissance. amphibious task force transit lanes in the Atlantic in a
This type of surveillance would be supplemented by clay, but another four days would be needed to
aircraft, submarine, and surface ship reconnaissance provide full coverage. Soviet capabilities to estimate
for both detection and positive identification. the disposition of NATO surface forces could be
progressively degraded by the use of deception tech-
116. The major weakness of the Soviet ocean sur- niques against radar satellites, combined with
veillance system is its heavy reliance on electronic EMCON.
emissions from potential targets. When NATO forces 117. The Soviets have some 43 antiship cruise mis-
implement emission control (EMCON) conditions, ile submarines (see figure 11-20) in their western fleets
which occur during NATO exercises, Soviet surveil- for deployment in the Atlantic and European theater
lance capabilities are impaired, sometimes drastically. aeFour ine-lanc ant rue me
area. Four submarine-launched antiship ciriise missile
If EMCON conditions were imposed in wartime, (ASCM) systems (see figure 11-21), are operational,
Soviet naval and civilian maritime assets and radar each capable of delivering either conventional or
satellites probably would be able to provide adequate nuclear warheads. Deployed units probably carry an
data only on Western surface forces previously located equal mix of high-explosive and nuclear warheads.
or those within striking range of Warsaw Pact coun- They probably also carry at least two nuclear torpe-
tries. Elsewhere, large NATO ships would probably be does. The ASCM-equipped submarines include:
less vulnerable to detection because of the limitations
of the radar satellites and the nearly impossible task of - Seven C-I and three C-II-class nuclear-powered
providing surveillance by surface ships and aircraft in units, each of which can fire eight antiship
Selected Newer Soviet General Purpose Submarines Figure 11-20
Propulsion/max.
submerged speed
Year operational (knots) Armament
C-Il cruise missile submarine 1974 Nuclear/23 SS-N-9 antiship cruise missile
Torpedoes: ASW and antiship
V-Il attack submarine 1973 Nuclear/31 SS-N-15 ASW missile
Torpedoes: ASW and antiship
A attack submarine 1978 Nuclear/27+ Possible ASW missile
Torpedoes
T attack submarine 1973 Diesel/16 Possible ASW missile
Torpedoes
579023 -s cu
11-33
ept

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.