Documents / FOIA release
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
“Sea”60+ pages
Top number from a pool of 300,000 reservists released problems are unavailable, but Soviet naval authorities from active duty within the previous five years. Other appear to be concerned. These problems are most reservists would be called up to fill out the naval evident among enlisted noncareerists-who account support establishment bu we do not know the gross for about 95 percent of enlisted personnel-but are number required or the functional skills needed by found among only a relatively small proportion of type and number. officers and enlisted career personnel. The difficulties are brought out in reports concerning alcoholism, poor 109. The growing complexity of naval weapon sys- performance aboard ship, absences without leave, tens demands greater technical expertise in operation- disciplinary infractions, and even a mutiny aboard a and maintenance. The Soviets, to a much greater destroyer. These problems, which are reflections of extent than is normal in Western navies, rely on Soviet society as a whole, could have an adverse officers and warrant officers to operate, maintain, and repar teircomlexequpmen. Svie naal ffiers impact upon peacetime training and materiel readi-repair their complex equipment. Soviet naval officers ness programs and thus would explain the concern of have a strong technical background, acquired during senior naval authorities. We doubt, however, that the five years they spend at officer training schools, these problems would prevail during wartime to an most of which provide engineering degrees. Major extent which would affect ship operations or crew shortcomings of the Soviet Navy's training systern' performance, because in wartime most of the motiva- however, include its overemphasis on narrow special- tional and disciplinary problems would disappear. ization and its apparent failure to instill the qualities of initiative and adaptability essential to effective Major Wartime Tasks leadership at sea. These weaknesses could constitute a disadvantage under combat conditions. 113. The wartime missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110. The Soviets apparently lack sufficient enlisted in waters from which NATO's sea-based air and personnel technically qualified to handle their increas- ballistic missile strike and amphibious projection ingly complex equipment. A low reenlistment rate has forces can reach the Soviet Union, to support and tended to exacerbate this deficiency. The recent exter- protect Soviet ballistic missile submarines, to exercise sion of shipboard duty from 18 months to two years sea denial in the sea lanes necessary for resupply and for those enlisted personnel with higher education reinforcement of Europe from the United States, and appears to be an attempt to reduce shortages of to project power ashore in support of Pact ground technically skilled personnel. In an effort to compen- forces. Although the relative emphasis that would be sate for these shortages, the Soviet Navy periodically placed on each of these missions in a conflict would has engaged in concentrated campaigns to encourage depend upon the way hostilities were initiated and the and promote cross-training of enlisted personnel and course of the war, the Soviets in their major exercises officers in a second specialty. There is little evidence have focused on ASW and attacks on carriers, cruisers, that such campaigns have had a lasting effect. and amphibious task forces. 111. Shipboard training of new sailors revolves around the semiannual conscription cycles, each of which appears to account for about a 15-percent 114. Soviet Navy resources capable of acting to turnover of personnel. This training is based on an counter NATO's surface naval forces include missile- annual cycle, much of which is aimed at developing equipped bombers, submarines, and surface combat- individual ship proficiency and readiness. The high ants which are supported by ocean surveillance sys- turnover of enlisted conscripts is partially offset by the tems, including ELINT and radar satellites and air- long tenure of career personnel. It is not uncommon, craft, for detecting, identifying, and tracking potential for example, for the latter to spend five to 10 years surface targets. These surveillance systems are cen- aboard the same ship. Although shipboard training has trally controlled from Navy and General Staff head- been improving, it continues to be excessively struc- quarters in Moscow, and information derived from tured and stereotyped. We are uncertain whether these systems is made available to the fleets. these factors would seriously degrade cobat 115. Major exercises since 1970 have demonstrated the Soviet approach to, and capabilities for, a large 112. There is evidence of morale and disciplinary ocean surveillance operation coordinated with strike problems among Soviet naval personnel. As with the activities in various areas. They indicate that the ground forces, statistics pertaining to the scope of these detection and tracking of NATO carriers and amphib- 11-32 T -Meret--
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.