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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
Top etE
combat readiness in several hours and a few alert which a covert transition would occur, this informa-
aircraft could react in 30 to 40 minutes. tion reflects Soviet expectations of achieving full com-
103. Table UI-8 reflects the normal peacetime status bat readiness for the Soviet fleets.
of the Soviet naval units. During an extended period of 105. In addition to the active forces, the Soviets
tension, the number of ships able to put to sea on short have some 30 principal surface combatants and 100
notice would be increased, while training and main- submarines in a reserve status in the western fleet
tenance probably would be accelerated to improve areas. These units differ widely in levels of mainte-
combat effectiveness. Many of the combatants under- nance and readiness, ranging from complete preserva-
going minor repair or in refresher training following tion and storage to at least external maintenance and
repairs probably could regain an acceptable level of upkeep. Some units receive periodic checks of systems,
combat readiness within a week or two and most could including propulsion systems, and a few W-class sub-
be made combat ready within two months. The rest of marines and Skoryy-class destroyers are rotated in and
the foreign long-term overhaul or modification would out of the active force.
be unavailable for combat operations even with sev-
eralmonts' pepartion106. We have little information concerning the
eral months' preparation. overall readiness of this reserve fleet. The apparent
wide disparity of maintenance status, however, india
cates that the time required to place these units in
combat operation would vary. One view "5 in the
Intelligence Community holds that six to 10 subma-
rines could be brought to operational status in 30 days
and a total of 25 to 30 submarines in 90 days. Another
view s is that virtually no reserve submarines with
their crews could be brought to combat readiness in
less than 90 days. As for the reserve surface combat-
ants, all agree that a significant number of these
probably could not be brought to sufficient combat
readiness rapidly enough to have an active role in the
course of combat operations.
107. The Soviet Navy draws information on surface
ship locations from a large and comprehensive ocean
surveillance system, including HF/DF (high-fre-
cuency/direction-finding) stations, ELINT (electronic
Table II-8 intelligence) and radar satellites, reconnaissance air-
Normal Peacetime Status of Soviet Naval Forces craft, intelligence collection ships, and civilian mari-
Percent of time assets. It provides intelligence on naval move-
Activity Force* Status ments and deployments worldwide. Command and
--- - - ---- control systems and procedures have been expanded
Attack Submarines: and improved to allow control of operating forces
Major Overhaul 20 Unavailable
Minor Repair 20 Reduced Readiness from Naval Headquarters in Moscow, from fleet
Home Waters 40 Operable headquarters,.or by command authorities afloat.
'Deployed 20 At Sea
Principal Surface Combatants Manpower, Personnel, and Training
Major Overhaul 20-25 Unavailable
Minor Repair or Refresher 108. Current Soviet naval personnel strengths are
Training 25-30 Reduced Readiness adequate to meet peacetime requirements. Upon
Home waters 35-40 Operable mobilization, fewer than 50,000 reservists would be
t eployed 10-15 At Sea ___needed to provide full complements for all ships, both
* Percentages are approximate, based on varying amounts of data active and reserve. The Soviets can easily mobilize this
for respective force components. Available data are more extensive
for the submarine force than for the surface fleet and therefore The holders of this view are Director, Defense Intelligence
probably more accurate. Agency, and the Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the
Navy.
T he holder of this view is the Central Intelligence Agency.
11-31
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.