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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
lop eret
(ASW). Table 11-7 and figure I119 show the current Soviet Naval Forces Figure li-19
size, composition, and trends in Pact general purpose Opposite NATO, 1969 and 1979
naval forces.
Three Soviet Western Fleetsa
102. If the Soviets were not concerned with covert
deployment of their ships to sea, they could probably Cruise Missile and Torpedo Attack Submarines
get about half of theii force opposite NATO under
way with varying degrees of combat effectiveness 236 Nuclear
within 48 hours. Those remaining units not undergoing 13 SSN
major repairs or overhaul probably could put to sea in 178
about four days, but would do so with reduced Nuclear
effectiveness. Naval air units normally maintain a low Diesel 26 SSGN
level of peacetime activity; most could reach full 21 SSG
Table II-7 G
Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces SS
Opposite NATO a
January 1979 1969 1979
Soviet b NSWP Total Major Surface Combatants
.- --- 97 1 Aircraft Carrier
General Purpose Submarines - -- 2 Helicopter
Cruise Missile Units 43 - 43 77 2 Helicopter Cruisers
Torpedo Attack Units 135 8 143 / Cruisers Cruisers
Principal Surface Combatants Cruisers
Aircraft Carriers 1 c --
Helicopter Ships 2 - 2 Destroyers
Cruisers 26 - 26 Destroyers
Destroyers 49 1 50
Missile Frigates 19 - 19
Frigates 102 4 106
Selected Minor Surface 1969 1979
Combatants a 278 85 363 Tonnage of Major Surface Combatantsb
Amphibious Ships 66 34 100 614,500
Selected Support Ships c 85 4 89 ,. Aircraft Carriers
Naval Aircraft r Helicopter
Reconnaissance/EW Aircraft 84 10 94 442,500 Cruisers
Strike Aircraft 254 - 254 Helicopter Cruisers
Tankers 56 - 56
Fighters/Fighter,-Bormbers 71 52 123 Cruisers
ASW Fixed-Wing Aircraft 105 - 105
ASW/Reconnaissance
Helicopters 164 48 212 Destroyers
Destroyers
a The NSWP navies and the Soviet forces assigned to the North-
ern, Baltic, and Black Sea Fleets. Detailed order-of-battle data for
these and Soviet Pacific Fleet naval forces are contained in tables B- 1969 1979
4, B-5, and B-6 in annex B.
6 Figures exclude some 100 attack submarines and 30 principal
surface combatants kept in reserve status,
c A second Kiev-class aircraft carrier is operational in the Black vExcludes reserve units.
Sea, but we believe it will deploy to the Pacific Fleet. bCombatants over 3,000 tons, excluding reserve units.
d Patrol combatants, mine-warfare ships, and missile-equipped
coastal patrol craft.
e Oilers, replenishment oilers, missile tenders, repair ships, and 577630 1-79 CIA
submarine tenders.
Iin addition, these are about 120 transport aircraft and 105
transport helicopters which support Soviet Naval Aviation.
11-30
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.