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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
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90. A new medium-range air-to-air missile, the ent tactical air-to-surface missiles (TASMs) have also
AA-7 Apex, evidently is being fielded in both infrared been developed in recent years. One of these, the AS-7
seeking and semiactive versions. (See figure 11-16.) The Kerry, was developed some years ago as a short-range,
missile probably has a limited shootdown capability to beam-riding missile for use on earlier model MIG-21s.
match the limited lookdown, search-and-track features We have evidence, however, that the Fitter C and
of the airborne intercept radar on the Flogger B. In Flogger D are also capable of using a command-
addition, a new short-range, infrared-seeking air-to-air guided variant of the Kerry missile. The other two
missile, the AA-8 Aphid, is in service. This missile is TASMs, the AS-9 and AS-10, are completely new
smaller than earlier missiles, probably is more maneu- missiles. The AS-9 is an antiradiation missile with an
verable, and is estimated to have a launch range of estimated maximum range of 60 nm (10 km). The AS-
0.25 to 5 nautical miles (about 450 to 9,000 meters). 10 is a semiactive laser-guided missile with a maxi-
The Soviets also have fielded the AA-2d (Atoll D), an mum range of approximately 6 nm (11 kin).
infrared homing air-to-air missile which may have an 92. The Soviets have made some advances in
irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their bomb shapes, and in developing
bly better maneuverability. Both the AA-8 and AA-2d retardation devices which allow ordnance to be deliv-
ered in high-speed, low-level flight. A runway-crater-
91. All Pact ground attack aircraft can carry a wide ing bomb was issued in 1974 and is probably able to
range of ground attack weapons, including pods of penetrate about half a meter of reinforced concrete in
57-mm rockets, large unguided rockets, conventional low-altitude delivery. The standard Soviet 250-kg
bombs of up to 500 kilograms, and cluster weapons. In fragmentation bomb has been modified with a tele-
addition, many carry guns and cannons. Three differ- scoping fuse to increase shrapnel effect. The Soviets
Selected Warsaw Pact Air-to-Air and Air-to-Surface Missiles Figure Il-16
for Tactical Aircraft
Year operational Guidance Range (nm) Carrier aircraft
Atoll AAM
AA-2b 1960 Infrared 3-4 Fishbed, Flogger B/C/E
AA-2c 1970 Semiactive radar 3-4 Fishbed J/K/L/N, Flogger E
AA-2d 1973 Infrared 4-6 Fishbed L/N, Flogger B
Apex AAM
AA-7a 1974 Semiactive radar 10 Flogger B
AA-7b 1974 Infrared 10 Flogger B
Aphid AAM
AA-8 1975 Infrared 2-3 Fishbed L/N, Flogger B
AS-7 Kerry TASM 1971 Command or 6 Fishbed F, Fitter C/D
beam rider Flogger B/D, Fencer A
AS-9 TASM 1975 Antiradiation homing 27-30 Fitter C/D, Fencer A
AS-10 TASM 1976 Semiactive laser 6-8 Fitter C/D ,Flogger D,
Fencer A
579021 . cu
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.