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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
Top t
Selected Warsaw Pact Figure 11-13 capability favor preplanned attacks to destroy, noct-
Fighter Aircraft tralize, or delay NATO's forces before they can be
brought to bear against Warsaw Pact forces. These
MIG-21 Fishbed J MIG-23 Flogger B attacks are generally planned at such distances from
Warsaw Pact ground forces that close coordination of
each strike mission with the fire and movement of
friendly forces is not required.
81. The Warsaw Pact has established a joint
ground-air control system which is designed to provide
the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions
when required. It consists of a series of joint air control
parties which are attached to the various ground force
Length (m) 16 18 echelons, radar-equipped control teams, and ground-
based forward air controllers. This system, which has
been observed in training exercises since the earlyMaximum speed 1,260 knots 1,350 knots 1970s, may also be used to coordinate aircraft and
Mach 2.2 Mach 2.35 ground-based air defenses, although how it would
function in such an operation is not fully understood.Combat radius (nm):
Subsonic area intercept 385 610 82. The introduction of new ground attack aircraft
with 4 air-to-air missiles. has improved the Pact's capabilities in several respects.
and 1 external fuel tank For example, the newer fighter-bombers-the Fencer,
Flogger, and Fitter C/D-can carry at least twice theSupersonic area intercept 195 415 bomb payload of the older Fitter A and can deliverwith 4 air-to-air missiles this payload with approximately three to four times
and 1 external fuel tank greater accuracy. (See figure 1I-14.) The net effect of
the greater payload and delivery accuracy is that the
Pact's newer ground attack aircraft are significantly
59ois. ., more effective than the earlier aircraft in ground
attack missions.
83. The Pact's new aircraft can also be used under a
greater variety of conditions. The new fighter-bomb-
relatively ineffective in clouds. The latest fighter ers, for example, are more capable of striking ground
variants carry semiactive radar homing missiles which targets in conditions of poor visibility. This capability
alleviate this problem. is provided by an integrated weapons delivery and
navigation system which allows the aircraft to arrive
79. Pact fighter units have a secondary mission of over large target areas such as airbases. However, the
attacking ground targets but have recently cut back on pilot must still visually acquire individual small targets
the amount of time their pilots devote to ground attack to ensure accurate weapons delivery. Tactically, such a
training. Flight activity in Soviet fighter units over the capability would be most useful in conventional bomb-
past two years has shown a 50-percent decrease in ing against targets occupying large areas or in deliver-
ground attack training, which previously amounted to ing nuclear weapons. The SU-24 Fencer has a newer
15 percent of total combat training. Training no longer bomb navigation radar which should give it the capa-
allocated to this secondary mission is devoted instead bility to deliver weapons with an error of 150 meters
to air-intercept missions. in low visibility conditions against well-defined tar-
80. Conventional Ground Attack." Frontal Avi- gets. This is substantially better than the blind bomb-
ation has the mission of conducting ground attack ing capability of Fitter C/D and Flogger D aircraft.
operations against supply lines and rear area installa- 84. Warsaw Pact aircrews rely largely on some
tions which support these forces. Soviet doctrine and form of control or direction from their ground-based
command posts for all offensive support operations.
"The nuclear strike capabilitics of Pact tactical air forces are This control often involves the use of airborne relay
discussed in paragraphs 157 and 158 of this chapter. communications. Ground-based radar equipment with
11-23

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.