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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
Top t
Selected Warsaw Pact Figure 11-13 capability favor preplanned attacks to destroy, noct-
Fighter Aircraft tralize, or delay NATO's forces before they can be
brought to bear against Warsaw Pact forces. These
MIG-21 Fishbed J MIG-23 Flogger B attacks are generally planned at such distances from
Warsaw Pact ground forces that close coordination of
each strike mission with the fire and movement of
friendly forces is not required.
81. The Warsaw Pact has established a joint
ground-air control system which is designed to provide
the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions
when required. It consists of a series of joint air control
parties which are attached to the various ground force
Length (m) 16 18 echelons, radar-equipped control teams, and ground-
based forward air controllers. This system, which has
been observed in training exercises since the earlyMaximum speed 1,260 knots 1,350 knots 1970s, may also be used to coordinate aircraft and
Mach 2.2 Mach 2.35 ground-based air defenses, although how it would
function in such an operation is not fully understood.Combat radius (nm):
Subsonic area intercept 385 610 82. The introduction of new ground attack aircraft
with 4 air-to-air missiles. has improved the Pact's capabilities in several respects.
and 1 external fuel tank For example, the newer fighter-bombers-the Fencer,
Flogger, and Fitter C/D-can carry at least twice theSupersonic area intercept 195 415 bomb payload of the older Fitter A and can deliverwith 4 air-to-air missiles this payload with approximately three to four times
and 1 external fuel tank greater accuracy. (See figure 1I-14.) The net effect of
the greater payload and delivery accuracy is that the
Pact's newer ground attack aircraft are significantly
59ois. ., more effective than the earlier aircraft in ground
attack missions.
83. The Pact's new aircraft can also be used under a
greater variety of conditions. The new fighter-bomb-
relatively ineffective in clouds. The latest fighter ers, for example, are more capable of striking ground
variants carry semiactive radar homing missiles which targets in conditions of poor visibility. This capability
alleviate this problem. is provided by an integrated weapons delivery and
navigation system which allows the aircraft to arrive
79. Pact fighter units have a secondary mission of over large target areas such as airbases. However, the
attacking ground targets but have recently cut back on pilot must still visually acquire individual small targets
the amount of time their pilots devote to ground attack to ensure accurate weapons delivery. Tactically, such a
training. Flight activity in Soviet fighter units over the capability would be most useful in conventional bomb-
past two years has shown a 50-percent decrease in ing against targets occupying large areas or in deliver-
ground attack training, which previously amounted to ing nuclear weapons. The SU-24 Fencer has a newer
15 percent of total combat training. Training no longer bomb navigation radar which should give it the capa-
allocated to this secondary mission is devoted instead bility to deliver weapons with an error of 150 meters
to air-intercept missions. in low visibility conditions against well-defined tar-
80. Conventional Ground Attack." Frontal Avi- gets. This is substantially better than the blind bomb-
ation has the mission of conducting ground attack ing capability of Fitter C/D and Flogger D aircraft.
operations against supply lines and rear area installa- 84. Warsaw Pact aircrews rely largely on some
tions which support these forces. Soviet doctrine and form of control or direction from their ground-based
command posts for all offensive support operations.
"The nuclear strike capabilitics of Pact tactical air forces are This control often involves the use of airborne relay
discussed in paragraphs 157 and 158 of this chapter. communications. Ground-based radar equipment with
11-23

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.