Documents / FOIA release
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
“The Advance”37 pages
combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped with the hampered by those pilots-25 to 35 percent of the Flogger B, which has an all-aspect intercept and total available-who are not qualified to conduct night limited lookdown/shootdown capability. In 1969 all or all-weather combat missions. Moreover, pilot profi- Pact fighter-bombers relied on ground-based naviga- ciency has not progressed sufficiently to exploit fully tion aids or dead reckoning to navigate over NATO the capabilities of the airframes and weapon systems territory, forcing them to operate at vulnerable me- of the third-generation aircraft currently in operation. dium altitudes. Beagle and Brewer light bombers The Soviets acknowledge that their combat pilots are provided the Pact's only autonomous adverse weather not trained as effectively as they should be, but for bombing/navigation capability. Today there are about reasons that are not clear to us they do not appear to 45 percent fewer aircraft (Brewers and Fencers) pos- be taking major corrective measures to enhance the quality of training significantly. Such steps would include devoting a greater share of training time to the perforrance of combat-related tasks and introducing Figure a-10 more realism by exposing these pilots to enemy tactics dearnizatiPact Tactical Air Forces and simulated hostile air defense environments. Opposite NATO, 1969-1979 72. Combat Capabilities.One of the most signifi- cant developments in Warsaw Pact tactical air forces in recent years has been their modernization through the introduction of new aircraft. The new aircraft Percent of Total Force have greater ranges, can carry greater payloads, are soviet equipped with better, more advanced avionics, and 100 arc armed with better, more effective munitions. These attributes combine to give the Pact's air forces the capacity to deliver more effective firepower under a greater variety of conditions. Another significant development in recent years has been the develop- 50 ment of heavily armed helicopters. 73. The Pact began reequipping its air forces in the 25 late 1960s with fighter units receiving initial priority. Late-model MIG-21 Fishbed and MIG-23 Flogger B aircraft were introduced to replace earlier model 0 1969 71 73 75 77 79 Fishbeds in these units. Modernization of the fighter- bomber forces began four to five years later with NSWP SU-17 Fitter C/D, MIG-27 Flogger D, and some late- model Fishbeds replacing the MIG-17 Fresco and SU-7 Fitter A. Light-bomber units also began reequip- 75 ping in the mid-1970s by acquiring the SU-24 Fencer A as a replacement for the YAK-28 Brewer B/C, Modern- ization has progressed more rapidly in Soviet than in 50 the NSWP air forces. Newer aircraft now account for about 80 percent of the Soviet force, 20 percent of the NSWP force, and two-thirds of total Pact tactical air 25 force opposite NATO. (See figure I-10.) 74. In 1969 some 30 percent of the Pact's tactical 0 1969 71 73 75 77 79 fighters were unable to conduct aerial engagements under adverse weather conditions; all attacks had to be performed from the real hemisphere, and the fighters had virtually no capability to intercept low-flying aircraft. (See figure II-11.) Today, nearly 95 percent of 571624 1.79 CIA Pact fighters are able to operate in adverse weather, 11-20 Toi er+
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.