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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
cantly improved the runway capability at 62 military 68. Dispersal airfields with natural surfaces con-
airfields in the NSWP countries and the USSR west of tinue to be maintained in an operational condition in
the Urals. All major military and most civil airfields in the forward areas. Teams of personnel to operate these
the Pact countries have been, or are being, equipped airfields appear to be available at the main operating
with modern lighting, improved navigational aid bases. There is uncertainty, however, about the avail-
equipment, more adequate and improved refueling ability of sufficient ground support equipment to
systems, and other ancillary support facilities. Installa- sustain operations from these bases concurrently with
tions for the storage, testing, and handling of air-to-air main base operations. Some storage facilities, with
(AAM) and air-to-surface (ASM) guided missiles have sufficient POL and ammunition for a limited number
been identified at most military airfields which have of sorties, are located near the natural-surface air-
aircraft equipped with these weapons. Approximately fields. These cannot be used, however, by some of the
3,400 shelters (hangarettes) have been built since the more modern aircraft. On balance, supply stocks in
late 1960s to protect aircraft at main operating bases in depots, pipeline, and transport organizations appear
the USSR west of the Urals and in the NSWP coun- adequate to support reinforcement aircraft from the
tries. Other defensive improvements include harden- western USSR or other intratheater redeployments.
ing and increasing POL and ammunition storage 69. Pilot Training and Proficienc. ]3Y US stand-
facilities, hardening command and control facilities,
and establishing pipeline systems to service aircraft in ., .
shelters. gram is more conducive to perfecting a pilot s basic
flying skills than to preparing him for combat. A
66. This airfield development program has typical Soviet pilot spends four years in a flying school
achieved four specific objectives. First, the Soviets and an additional three to four years training in an
have expanded their pilot and navigator training operational combat unit before he is considered quali-
capability by building new training airfields and fied, by Soviet standards, to carry out the full range of
improving existing ones. Second, they have improved combat missions assigned to his unit. In conducting
their airfield capability within the Soviet Union to operational training, a Soviet tactical pilot flies ap-
support their new, longer range, higher performance proximately the same number of sorties per year as his
ground attack fighter aircraft and the Backfire US counterpart, but the sorties are less than half as
bomber, Third, all Pact nations have increased the long in duration and involve far fewer combat-related
survivability and sustainability of their combat air training events.
forces. Fourth, they have increased their capability 70. In recent years, activity specifically identified
to conceal and protect large numbers of aircraft in 70 Inareetraiity spe t i
bunkrs.Theoveallneteffct f te Pct iliary as combat-related training has amounted to approxi-
bunkers. The overall net effect of the Pact militar mately 25 percent of the total number of flights by
airfield development since 1968 is a greater capabi- Frontal Aviation pilots in East Germany. The purpose
lity to conduct both offensive and defensive air of some other flight activity, which in the Unitedoperatio~ns.. States is termed "mission in zone" training, is the
67. Recent developments tend to indicate that the subject of some disagreement within the Intelligence
Warsaw Pact and particularly Soviet Frontal Aviation Community. According to one view, 0 this.activity is
plan to conduct most wartime operations from main largely aerobatic and not combat related. At least 80
airfields where aircraft can be protected in hardened percent involves a single aircraft that does not practice
aircraft shelters. For more than 85 percent of the engaging aerial or ground targets. An alternative
Soviet tactical aircraft in the NSWP countries, there view " holds that because little is known about the
now are facilities adequate to accommodate one specifics of this activity, and because more than one
armed, combat-ready aircraft per shelter. The sharing aircraft are known to have engaged in this activity
of shelters would provide protection for many more simultaneously in the same general area, some addi-
aircraft, although readiness would suffer because of tional combat training may be involved.
engine starting restrictions and ground handling prob-
lems. About half of the 1,200 or so shelters on Soviet 7L Despite increases in the number of pilots as-
main bases could be used to shelter more than one signed to Soviet units in the forward area, the overall
aircraft; this would provide protection for over 600 a The holder of this view is the Central Intelligence Agency.additional reinforcement aircraft. Still more aircraft " The holders of this view are the Director, Defense Intelligence
could be given some protection by on-base dispersal Agency; the Director,National Security Agency; and the Assistant
and use of revetments. Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.