Documents / FOIA release
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
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cantly improved the runway capability at 62 military 68. Dispersal airfields with natural surfaces con- airfields in the NSWP countries and the USSR west of tinue to be maintained in an operational condition in the Urals. All major military and most civil airfields in the forward areas. Teams of personnel to operate these the Pact countries have been, or are being, equipped airfields appear to be available at the main operating with modern lighting, improved navigational aid bases. There is uncertainty, however, about the avail- equipment, more adequate and improved refueling ability of sufficient ground support equipment to systems, and other ancillary support facilities. Installa- sustain operations from these bases concurrently with tions for the storage, testing, and handling of air-to-air main base operations. Some storage facilities, with (AAM) and air-to-surface (ASM) guided missiles have sufficient POL and ammunition for a limited number been identified at most military airfields which have of sorties, are located near the natural-surface air- aircraft equipped with these weapons. Approximately fields. These cannot be used, however, by some of the 3,400 shelters (hangarettes) have been built since the more modern aircraft. On balance, supply stocks in late 1960s to protect aircraft at main operating bases in depots, pipeline, and transport organizations appear the USSR west of the Urals and in the NSWP coun- adequate to support reinforcement aircraft from the tries. Other defensive improvements include harden- western USSR or other intratheater redeployments. ing and increasing POL and ammunition storage 69. Pilot Training and Proficienc. ]3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline systems to service aircraft in ., . shelters. gram is more conducive to perfecting a pilot s basic flying skills than to preparing him for combat. A 66. This airfield development program has typical Soviet pilot spends four years in a flying school achieved four specific objectives. First, the Soviets and an additional three to four years training in an have expanded their pilot and navigator training operational combat unit before he is considered quali- capability by building new training airfields and fied, by Soviet standards, to carry out the full range of improving existing ones. Second, they have improved combat missions assigned to his unit. In conducting their airfield capability within the Soviet Union to operational training, a Soviet tactical pilot flies ap- support their new, longer range, higher performance proximately the same number of sorties per year as his ground attack fighter aircraft and the Backfire US counterpart, but the sorties are less than half as bomber, Third, all Pact nations have increased the long in duration and involve far fewer combat-related survivability and sustainability of their combat air training events. forces. Fourth, they have increased their capability 70. In recent years, activity specifically identified to conceal and protect large numbers of aircraft in 70 Inareetraiity spe t i bunkrs.Theoveallneteffct f te Pct iliary as combat-related training has amounted to approxi- bunkers. The overall net effect of the Pact militar mately 25 percent of the total number of flights by airfield development since 1968 is a greater capabi- Frontal Aviation pilots in East Germany. The purpose lity to conduct both offensive and defensive air of some other flight activity, which in the Unitedoperatio~ns.. States is termed "mission in zone" training, is the 67. Recent developments tend to indicate that the subject of some disagreement within the Intelligence Warsaw Pact and particularly Soviet Frontal Aviation Community. According to one view, 0 this.activity is plan to conduct most wartime operations from main largely aerobatic and not combat related. At least 80 airfields where aircraft can be protected in hardened percent involves a single aircraft that does not practice aircraft shelters. For more than 85 percent of the engaging aerial or ground targets. An alternative Soviet tactical aircraft in the NSWP countries, there view " holds that because little is known about the now are facilities adequate to accommodate one specifics of this activity, and because more than one armed, combat-ready aircraft per shelter. The sharing aircraft are known to have engaged in this activity of shelters would provide protection for many more simultaneously in the same general area, some addi- aircraft, although readiness would suffer because of tional combat training may be involved. engine starting restrictions and ground handling prob- lems. About half of the 1,200 or so shelters on Soviet 7L Despite increases in the number of pilots as- main bases could be used to shelter more than one signed to Soviet units in the forward area, the overall aircraft; this would provide protection for over 600 a The holder of this view is the Central Intelligence Agency.additional reinforcement aircraft. Still more aircraft " The holders of this view are the Director, Defense Intelligence could be given some protection by on-base dispersal Agency; the Director,National Security Agency; and the Assistant and use of revetments. Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force. _ t-19
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.