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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
wartime strength. In light of this evidence we estimate Increase in Warsaw Pact Figure 11-9
the other Soviet air divisions in Central Europe are Helicopters Opposite NATO,
similarly manned. We have good evidence on person- 1969 and 1979
nel strengths for only one NSWP air force. This 1969
evidence indicates that the total force is manned at 60
percent of wartime strength and combat air units at 70 3,000
percent. We estimate that the other NSWP air forces
are also manned below their intended wartime
strengths. We have no good evidence, however, on the 2,000
extent of this undernanning. Pact air units could
initiate combat operations utilizing existing peacetime
strengths; however, mobilization of additional person- 1,000
nel would be required before the Pact could conduct a combat Helicopters i
sustained large-scale air offensive. Support Helicopters '
62. Helicopter Forces. Warsaw Pact helicopter 0 1969 1979
forces have two primary missions: combat and combat
support. Combat helicopters include those assigned to
units responsible for attacking ground targets or trans-
porting assault troops. Opposite NATO the Pact has 577627 1-79 CiA
assigned some 1,700 combat helicopters to this mission.
(See table 1I-5.) Of these, about 300 helicopters have as
their primary mission the attack of. ground targets; and
the remaining 1,400 helicopters have a primary mis_ vary in size from 50 to more than 100 helicopters.
sion of transporting assault forces. An additional 900 NSWP helicopter regiments generally are smaller than
helicopters are assigned to Pact units opposite NATO Soviet regiments. If used to transport troops, each
for various combat support roles including rescue, Soviet ground attack helicopter regiment probably
communications, relay, airborne command posts, artil- could lift simultaneously one or two reinforced motor-
lery spotting, electronic warfare, and liaison. A signifi- ized rifle battalions without their vehicles. Soviet
cant development in recent years has been the intro- assault transport regiments using only MI-8 Hip heli-
duction of heavily armed helicopters. Figure 11-9 copters could conduct the simultaneous lift of two to
shows the increase in the number of Pact helicopters three reinforced motorized rifle battalions without
opposite NATO since the early 1970s. their vehicles. Using both Hip and MI-6 Hook helicop-
ters, these assault transport regiments could lift a force
63. Soviet combat helicopters (ground attack and of the same size along with heavier equipment and
assault transport) are organized into regiments which light armored vehicles. The largest ground force unit
transported by helicopters would probably be of regi-
Table II-5 mental size.
Warsaw Pact Helicopters Opposite NATO * 64. Base Structure. The Warsaw Pact has an ex-
January 1979 tensive airfield network from which to launch and
In Eastern Europe In the sustain military air operations. In the USSR west of the
Primary Mission Soviet NSWP USSR Total Urals there are some 230 active military airfields; the
Comba Hlcte ______ _- Soviets also operate 40 military airfields in the NSWP
Ground Attack 175 25 110 310 countries. Eighty-four airfields operated by the NSWP
Assault Transport 275 555 555 1,385 air forces complement the Soviet base structure. There
Total Combat 450 580 665 1,695 are hundreds of other airfields-civil, factory flyaway,
Support Helicopters 370 125 425 920 and unoccupied (including dispersal) fields, highway
----- ---- - strips, and fields with temporary surfaces-which
Grand Total 820 705 1,090 2,615 could be used by military aircraft.
* See footnote to table II-i, following paragraph 3. See table B-3
in annex 13for a detailed order of battle of Pact helicopter forces
opposite NATO. construction of at least 11 new military airfields,
StE -- started construction of at least nine others, and signifi-
11-18
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.