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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 8 …I1-41 Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO's Sea Lines of Communication 11-41…
  • p. 9 …IV-25 Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea IV-27 Initial Air and Naval Operations…
  • p. 16 …European NATO and the Warsaw Pact Figure 1 ,'- - "''i 'Fr,~'""' NNA TO countries Benes Sea Warsaw…
  • p. 20 …An area in the Norwegian Sea north of the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom 10
  • p. 21 …The forces of the Baltic and Black Sea Combined Fleets initially would be under the control…
  • p. 22 …To assist in the achievement of air and sea superiority and to protect the amphibious force…
  • p. 23 …The Soviets would attempt to neutralize Western SSBNs near their bases and in the Norwegian Sea…
  • p. 28 …Extent, Emphasis, and Timing of the Soviet Interdiction Campaign Against NATO Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC…
  • p. 30 …Likely Effectiveness of Pact Operations To Achieve Air Superiority and Sea Control in the Baltic Sea…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 42 …At sea the establishment and maintenance of 36. The Soviets recognize the formidable strength Soviet naval…
  • p. 50 …not include airborne divisions or the Polish Sea Landing division-level air defense weapons. The SA…
  • p. 54 …7 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP NorweqianA'Motr iisio rifle Norwegian divisionCategory I Sea Category II Category…
  • p. 60 Peacetime Location of Warsaw Pact Air Forces Opposite NATO Figure 1-8 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP…
  • p. 71 …For operations in the Mediterranean Sea, January 1979 the Black Sea Fleet furnishes most of the…
  • p. 72 …PO A ; re -t { - Black Sea Fleet ROMANI A -UGM (Dsevastopo - BUGRAFleet Caspian headquarters Black Sea…
  • p. 73 …If the Soviets were not concerned with covert deployment of their ships to sea, they could…
  • p. 74 …number of ships able to put to sea on short have some 30 principal surface combatants…
  • p. 75 …The wartime missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea…
  • p. 77 lop et Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21a Maximum system Payload (kg) Speed…
  • p. 78 Nominal Flight Profiles of Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21b Altitude (m) 18…
  • p. 79 …but can into the Baltic and Black Sea Fleet air forces to date remain submerged for…
  • p. 80 …In the antiship role, wartime operational con- against ships at sea. The Fitters, however, all of…
  • p. 83 …Pact fleets in the Baltic and Black Seas. IL-38 May TU-142 Bear F bottom…
  • p. 84 …Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO Sea Lines of Communication 142. In wartime, the Soviets…
  • p. 85 …of a conflict when NATO Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and much of the Norwegian would…
  • p. 86 Table II-9 Northern Fleet submarine bases and the North Atlantic sea lanes. They point out…
  • p. 87 …In the Black Sea area, the combined Nuclear weapons allocations that we have noted strength of…
  • p. 95 …with either land- or sea-based missile forces. The LRA H-II SSBN . 4/12 intermediate…
  • p. 96 …This latest Soviet bomber has a combat particularly naval task forces at sea During exercises, radius…
  • p. 100 …Sea-Level Thrust-kN (lb r) 120 (27,000) 105 (23,500) Installed Maximum Afterburner Sea…
  • p. 102 …bulk-fill artillery and mor- ships at sea, points of embarkation, forward storage tar shells; multiple…
  • p. 112 …A shortage of technicians would oilers from their home fleets could operate at sea for probably…
  • p. 113 …The Soviets to sustain operations at sea. rarely have been observed practicing this, however, and instead…
  • p. 114 …For naval and civilian, probably would seek to minimize example, emergency action drills at sea are…
  • p. 115 …developed to permit the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets to foreseeable future, of marginal value be…
  • p. 118 …Pact operations in the western and sea areas, including islands (archipelagos), Baltic Sea also would be…
  • p. 121 …Barents Sea Maritime / T VD 49 shr rri s / Norwegian ICELAND '1 I ' Sea T''f…
  • p. 122 …The Combined Black Sea Fleet would be formed from the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and the…
  • p. 127 …t ,,D ES MA ! R K y 7 ~ ~ §.~.Baltic 50ea North Sea -? - ASNDT1 4... . NETHERLANDS 1…
  • p. 131 …units and with additional naval units at sea-would choose to attack with the two-front…
  • p. 139 …4 NATO airbases Balte sea- HAWK missile belt - Penetration corridor - - North Sea i/ POLAND - West Berlin…
  • p. 144 …This buffer for Pact territory, and defend Pact sea lines of would require effective coordination of…
  • p. 145 …b The soviet Baltic Sea Fleet. Not included are minor surface combatants or 10 reserve ships…
  • p. 146 …The Pact clearly is aware that the success of its infantry regiment, the Polish sea landing…
  • p. 147 …Pact planners also of ships assigned to protect Baltic sea lines would be recognize that the…
  • p. 148 …these air naval forces from the Black Sea. It also would operations, and the speed with…
  • p. 149 …southwestern Brigrades .........-- 9e - - littoral of the Black Sea. Soviet surface naval forces Soviet divisions in Hungary…
  • p. 150 …and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there into IV-26
  • p. 151 …Pact air and sea superiority in the Black Sea would be particularly critical to the Pact…
  • p. 152 …the initialattacks by Soviet ships and submarines of bThe Black Sea Fleet and the Mediterranean Squadron…
  • p. 153 …The Soviets no doubt realize, however, that the Sea Fleet, although reinforcement from the Northern advantages…
  • p. 154 …be reinforced cally available in the Black Sea Fleet, seven to before the outbreak of hostilities…
  • p. 155 -T _P.3_re4' few, if any, large combatants from the Black Sea the Straits as…
  • p. 156 …See paragraphs 102 and forces in the Norwegian Sea. Initially, we could expect 103 and table…
  • p. 157 …Sealifted ground forces could gian Sea. If the Soviets chose to avoid Norwegian- reinforce airborne and…
  • p. 158 …The Soviets have about 130 operational cruise Barents Seas and their approaches apparently consist missile and…
  • p. 159 …submarines normally deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. 169. Another view "1holds that, in a typical initial…
  • p. 160 …1 Sea control N eMurmansk _ G+UK "r' Gap ''-1 (5Sea denial, ?" Holy locit tRosyth Moscow…
  • p. 161 …Once hostilities cover the approaches to the Norwegian Sea. Our began, however, these forces probably would…
wartime strength. In light of this evidence we estimate Increase in Warsaw Pact Figure 11-9
the other Soviet air divisions in Central Europe are Helicopters Opposite NATO,
similarly manned. We have good evidence on person- 1969 and 1979
nel strengths for only one NSWP air force. This 1969
evidence indicates that the total force is manned at 60
percent of wartime strength and combat air units at 70 3,000
percent. We estimate that the other NSWP air forces
are also manned below their intended wartime
strengths. We have no good evidence, however, on the 2,000
extent of this undernanning. Pact air units could
initiate combat operations utilizing existing peacetime
strengths; however, mobilization of additional person- 1,000
nel would be required before the Pact could conduct a combat Helicopters i
sustained large-scale air offensive. Support Helicopters '
62. Helicopter Forces. Warsaw Pact helicopter 0 1969 1979
forces have two primary missions: combat and combat
support. Combat helicopters include those assigned to
units responsible for attacking ground targets or trans-
porting assault troops. Opposite NATO the Pact has 577627 1-79 CiA
assigned some 1,700 combat helicopters to this mission.
(See table 1I-5.) Of these, about 300 helicopters have as
their primary mission the attack of. ground targets; and
the remaining 1,400 helicopters have a primary mis_ vary in size from 50 to more than 100 helicopters.
sion of transporting assault forces. An additional 900 NSWP helicopter regiments generally are smaller than
helicopters are assigned to Pact units opposite NATO Soviet regiments. If used to transport troops, each
for various combat support roles including rescue, Soviet ground attack helicopter regiment probably
communications, relay, airborne command posts, artil- could lift simultaneously one or two reinforced motor-
lery spotting, electronic warfare, and liaison. A signifi- ized rifle battalions without their vehicles. Soviet
cant development in recent years has been the intro- assault transport regiments using only MI-8 Hip heli-
duction of heavily armed helicopters. Figure 11-9 copters could conduct the simultaneous lift of two to
shows the increase in the number of Pact helicopters three reinforced motorized rifle battalions without
opposite NATO since the early 1970s. their vehicles. Using both Hip and MI-6 Hook helicop-
ters, these assault transport regiments could lift a force
63. Soviet combat helicopters (ground attack and of the same size along with heavier equipment and
assault transport) are organized into regiments which light armored vehicles. The largest ground force unit
transported by helicopters would probably be of regi-
Table II-5 mental size.
Warsaw Pact Helicopters Opposite NATO * 64. Base Structure. The Warsaw Pact has an ex-
January 1979 tensive airfield network from which to launch and
In Eastern Europe In the sustain military air operations. In the USSR west of the
Primary Mission Soviet NSWP USSR Total Urals there are some 230 active military airfields; the
Comba Hlcte ______ _- Soviets also operate 40 military airfields in the NSWP
Ground Attack 175 25 110 310 countries. Eighty-four airfields operated by the NSWP
Assault Transport 275 555 555 1,385 air forces complement the Soviet base structure. There
Total Combat 450 580 665 1,695 are hundreds of other airfields-civil, factory flyaway,
Support Helicopters 370 125 425 920 and unoccupied (including dispersal) fields, highway
----- ---- - strips, and fields with temporary surfaces-which
Grand Total 820 705 1,090 2,615 could be used by military aircraft.
* See footnote to table II-i, following paragraph 3. See table B-3
in annex 13for a detailed order of battle of Pact helicopter forces
opposite NATO. construction of at least 11 new military airfields,
StE -- started construction of at least nine others, and signifi-
11-18
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