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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
interpreted in light of the way the Soviet command for several reasons: many problems are endemic to a
system is supposed to work. Little detailed planning, peacetime military force and probably would disap-
coordination, or initiative is expected of squad, pla- pear in time of war; the Soviet system and authorities
toon, company, and battalion commanders. These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and
commanders are expected to be closely supervised time; and a basic feeling of respect for authority and
executors of detailed plans drawn up at regimental patriotism, continually exploited by authorities, pro-
and higher levels. This system could discourage inde- vides an underlying motivation to the Soviet soldier for
pendent small-unit actions, but would probably cause honorable service and obedience.
Soviet forces to be rapidly responsive to the commands Ready Reserves
of regiment and division commanders.
54. According to the Soviet Law on Universal Mili-
50. The Soviet soldier is well drilled in his job. Units tary Service, Soviet soldiers have a reserve obligation
generally can carry out the basic maneuvers envi- after discharge from active duty. Enlisted men must
sioned in tactical doctrine. Major weaknesses include remain in the reserves until age 50, with refresher
the prevalence of rote, unrealistic, drill-type training training scheduled according to the age of the reserv-
at lower levels. The heavy use of simulators, subcaliber ist. Officers under 35 years old are subject to annual
devices, and training equipment adds to this lack of recall for periods as long as three months, until a
realism. Army- and front-level staffs train primarily maximum of 30 months of reserve training has been
by command post exercises, often with extensive signal completed. Reserve officers under 30 years of age may
support and limited troop participation. While these be recalled to active duty for two to three years during
exercises often involve realistic scenarios, staffs rarely peacetime, but this is rarely done. NSWP countries
have the opportunity actually to control and coordi- have similar laws but they vary in some details.
nate large numbers of troops in the field. 55. Training for Pact reservists is uneven. Although
51. The Warsaw Pact military structure is predi- many reservists would probably fill mobilization posi-
cated on a harsh and demanding disciplinary system tions that require little military expertise or require
which exacts unquestioning obedience and adherence skills similar to those of their civilian occupations, most
to regulations. In practice, however, it is evident that apparently do not receive periodic refresher training.
Pact forces suffer from the same breaches of discipline By contrast, a small group of reservists who are to be
that are found in other armies. These include alcohol- mobilized for the operation or maintenance of com-
ism, desertion and AWOL, misappropriation of mili- plex equipment are called up frequently for training.
tary equipment, and black-market activities. Statistics Reserve training would not be a significant factor in
pertaining to these breaches of discipline are impossi- the combat effectiveness of those divisions in which
ble to obtain, but Soviet military authorities appear to most key positions are already filled by active-duty
be concerned about them, and we receive reports of personnel. In cadre divisions, however, where reserv-
their occurrence, particularly in the Soviet armed ists must assume a large portion of the responsibility,
forces, often enough to indicate that the problem is training deficiencies would reduce unit effectiveness.
resftent. The initial effectiveness of recalled reservists, in any
case, would depend upon the length of time since
52. Morale problems are also prevalent. Certain release from active duty. In most cases, priority of
problems, such as alcoholism and ethnic hostility, are recall would be directed toward those most recently
common to Soviet and East European societies in released, thereby reducing refresher training burdens
general. Others, such as desertion and suicide, prob- and minimizing reservist handicaps stemming from a
ably are a reflection of the harshness of military life. lack of updated training.
The soldier receives extremely low pay, his housing
and food are barely adequate, he is subject to constant B Warsaw Pact Air Forces
abuse or harassment by NCOs and officers, and his 56. The Soviet Air Forces are divided into three
training is repetitive and boring. In addition, he is functional components: Long Range Aviation (LRA),
often a victim of prejudice and hostility if he is a Frontal (tactical) Aviation, and Military Transport
'member of a minority group. Soviet troops are usually Aviation (VTA). 8 The primary missions of LRA are
isolated from the civilian populace, as is the particular 9Details of the role and capabilities of LRA in theater war are
case of the Soviet soldier in Eastern Europe. discussed in section D of this chapter (beginning at paragraph 153)
and in chapters IV and V. Soviet Naval Aviation is treated in section
53. These morale and disciplinary problems prob- C of this chapter (beginning of paragraph 100) and in chapter IV.
ably do not impair overall combat or unit effectiveness Soviet strategic air defense forces are discussed in NIE 11-3/8-78.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.