Documents / FOIA release

Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the
fully equipped Soviet airborne division (7,300 men), or inventory usually requires a more highly trained
the combat assault elements of two divisions, could be soldier to operate or maintain it. Because the con-
lifted. NSWP airborne units have virtually no lift script's term of service is now two years, the Soviets
capabilities of their own, and depend almost entirely are faced with the requirement to provide more
on Soviet VTA for this purpose. training in less time for their largely conscript army.
This has prompted the Soviets to modify their training
Special Operations Units system to include increased emphasis on preinduction
training, individual specialist training, and intensified
38. The Soviets have units which they refer to as unit training.
special operations brigades. These are tasked to carry 42. The training of Soviet soldiers begins before
out long-range reconnaissance and sabotage against their induction into the armed forces. Compulsory
such targets as nuclear weapons facilities, airfields,
depots, air defense installations. and command aid preinduction training, which is prescribed by the
eotso facilities. Peacetime strengths of the units are Soviet 1967 Law on Universal Military Service, is
believed to range from about 250 men to several times given either in secondary schools, in the professional
thaelige Thy an e ompbose of ane toumeraf tes and technical education system, or at places of work. Itthat figure. They are com osed of a number of teams includes a 140-hour basic training course designed towhose strength may vary from three to 15 men, familiarize youths with the armed forces and provide
psychological preparation for military service. Tactical
39. We have identified one of these units in East field training is conducted in summer camps and
Germany and several in the western military districts includes weapons familiarization and live firing,
of the USSR. Similar units also exist in all NSWP marches, and tactical drills. Many specialists for the
countries. Virtually all members of these units receive armed forces also receive some training by the
parachute training and some instruction in demolition Voluntary Society for Assistance to the Army, Navy,
and foreign language. Some are known to be trained as and Air. Force (DOSAAF), the Soviet preinduction
frogmen. There are reports indicating that the teams training organization. These specialists, who have com-
may wear civilian clothes or the uniforms of NATO pleted their compulsory preinduction training, receive
member countries. additional training in such fields as aviation, scuba
diving, parachuting, vehicle operation and mainten-
ance, radio/radar operation, and electronics. A recent
Soviet article stated that a third of the conscripts
40. Pact armed forces depend heavily on universal received specialized military-technical training in the
conscription to meet military manpower require- DOSAAF.
ments. In the USSR, conscripts make up roughly 75
percent of total active strength. Terms of service vary 43. After induction into the armed forces, approxi-
by nation and branch of service but generally are two mately one-fourth to one-half of all conscripts are sent
or three years in length. The Soviets induct their to training units or schools for six months of NCO or
conscripts semiannually, usually for a two-year term spcialist training in such areas as tank gunnery and
of service. The induction of new Soviet conscripts, the radio operation. On completion of their courses, sot-
release of those whose terms of service have expired desji hi nt uigtenx ro oain
reeasenfthseime to s ofserce hades i Conscripts not assigned to training units or schools areand the assignment to units of the graduates of sn ietyt hi nt hr hyrcieapoi
noncommissioned officer (NCO) and specialist train- sent directly to their unit, where they receive approxi-
ing courses all occur during the semiannual induction mately four weeks of basic training, after which they
periods in May and November. This massive turnover, participate in regular unit training. In addition, the
at times as much as one third of unit strength, cause Soviets are making an effort to retain skilled enlisted
considerable disruption. There is a major reduction in specialists. In 1972 the rank of warrant officer (pra-
training and exercise activity while troop rotation is porshchik) was introduced into the ground forces and
under way. Approximately 125,000 troops are rotated strong efforts were made to recruit enlisted men as
every six rnonths in the Groups of Forces in Eastern warrant officers. The program for extended service
EveroyesNCOs (sverkhsrochnik) was dropped in 1972 when the
rank of warrant officer was introduced, but was
iL. The Soviets have upgraded their ground force reinstated a year later in order to retain highly trained
training in recent years as a result of two factors. The soldiers.
|I-13
Top ~LC

Not linked to a story yet.

About this file

FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.