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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the
fully equipped Soviet airborne division (7,300 men), or inventory usually requires a more highly trained
the combat assault elements of two divisions, could be soldier to operate or maintain it. Because the con-
lifted. NSWP airborne units have virtually no lift script's term of service is now two years, the Soviets
capabilities of their own, and depend almost entirely are faced with the requirement to provide more
on Soviet VTA for this purpose. training in less time for their largely conscript army.
This has prompted the Soviets to modify their training
Special Operations Units system to include increased emphasis on preinduction
training, individual specialist training, and intensified
38. The Soviets have units which they refer to as unit training.
special operations brigades. These are tasked to carry 42. The training of Soviet soldiers begins before
out long-range reconnaissance and sabotage against their induction into the armed forces. Compulsory
such targets as nuclear weapons facilities, airfields,
depots, air defense installations. and command aid preinduction training, which is prescribed by the
eotso facilities. Peacetime strengths of the units are Soviet 1967 Law on Universal Military Service, is
believed to range from about 250 men to several times given either in secondary schools, in the professional
thaelige Thy an e ompbose of ane toumeraf tes and technical education system, or at places of work. Itthat figure. They are com osed of a number of teams includes a 140-hour basic training course designed towhose strength may vary from three to 15 men, familiarize youths with the armed forces and provide
psychological preparation for military service. Tactical
39. We have identified one of these units in East field training is conducted in summer camps and
Germany and several in the western military districts includes weapons familiarization and live firing,
of the USSR. Similar units also exist in all NSWP marches, and tactical drills. Many specialists for the
countries. Virtually all members of these units receive armed forces also receive some training by the
parachute training and some instruction in demolition Voluntary Society for Assistance to the Army, Navy,
and foreign language. Some are known to be trained as and Air. Force (DOSAAF), the Soviet preinduction
frogmen. There are reports indicating that the teams training organization. These specialists, who have com-
may wear civilian clothes or the uniforms of NATO pleted their compulsory preinduction training, receive
member countries. additional training in such fields as aviation, scuba
diving, parachuting, vehicle operation and mainten-
ance, radio/radar operation, and electronics. A recent
Soviet article stated that a third of the conscripts
40. Pact armed forces depend heavily on universal received specialized military-technical training in the
conscription to meet military manpower require- DOSAAF.
ments. In the USSR, conscripts make up roughly 75
percent of total active strength. Terms of service vary 43. After induction into the armed forces, approxi-
by nation and branch of service but generally are two mately one-fourth to one-half of all conscripts are sent
or three years in length. The Soviets induct their to training units or schools for six months of NCO or
conscripts semiannually, usually for a two-year term spcialist training in such areas as tank gunnery and
of service. The induction of new Soviet conscripts, the radio operation. On completion of their courses, sot-
release of those whose terms of service have expired desji hi nt uigtenx ro oain
reeasenfthseime to s ofserce hades i Conscripts not assigned to training units or schools areand the assignment to units of the graduates of sn ietyt hi nt hr hyrcieapoi
noncommissioned officer (NCO) and specialist train- sent directly to their unit, where they receive approxi-
ing courses all occur during the semiannual induction mately four weeks of basic training, after which they
periods in May and November. This massive turnover, participate in regular unit training. In addition, the
at times as much as one third of unit strength, cause Soviets are making an effort to retain skilled enlisted
considerable disruption. There is a major reduction in specialists. In 1972 the rank of warrant officer (pra-
training and exercise activity while troop rotation is porshchik) was introduced into the ground forces and
under way. Approximately 125,000 troops are rotated strong efforts were made to recruit enlisted men as
every six rnonths in the Groups of Forces in Eastern warrant officers. The program for extended service
EveroyesNCOs (sverkhsrochnik) was dropped in 1972 when the
rank of warrant officer was introduced, but was
iL. The Soviets have upgraded their ground force reinstated a year later in order to retain highly trained
training in recent years as a result of two factors. The soldiers.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.