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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 8 …I1-41 Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO's Sea Lines of Communication 11-41…
  • p. 9 …IV-25 Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea IV-27 Initial Air and Naval Operations…
  • p. 16 …European NATO and the Warsaw Pact Figure 1 ,'- - "''i 'Fr,~'""' NNA TO countries Benes Sea Warsaw…
  • p. 20 …An area in the Norwegian Sea north of the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom 10
  • p. 21 …The forces of the Baltic and Black Sea Combined Fleets initially would be under the control…
  • p. 22 …To assist in the achievement of air and sea superiority and to protect the amphibious force…
  • p. 23 …The Soviets would attempt to neutralize Western SSBNs near their bases and in the Norwegian Sea…
  • p. 28 …Extent, Emphasis, and Timing of the Soviet Interdiction Campaign Against NATO Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC…
  • p. 30 …Likely Effectiveness of Pact Operations To Achieve Air Superiority and Sea Control in the Baltic Sea…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 42 …At sea the establishment and maintenance of 36. The Soviets recognize the formidable strength Soviet naval…
  • p. 50 …not include airborne divisions or the Polish Sea Landing division-level air defense weapons. The SA…
  • p. 54 …7 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP NorweqianA'Motr iisio rifle Norwegian divisionCategory I Sea Category II Category…
  • p. 60 Peacetime Location of Warsaw Pact Air Forces Opposite NATO Figure 1-8 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP…
  • p. 71 …For operations in the Mediterranean Sea, January 1979 the Black Sea Fleet furnishes most of the…
  • p. 72 …PO A ; re -t { - Black Sea Fleet ROMANI A -UGM (Dsevastopo - BUGRAFleet Caspian headquarters Black Sea…
  • p. 73 …If the Soviets were not concerned with covert deployment of their ships to sea, they could…
  • p. 74 …number of ships able to put to sea on short have some 30 principal surface combatants…
  • p. 75 …The wartime missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea…
  • p. 77 lop et Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21a Maximum system Payload (kg) Speed…
  • p. 78 Nominal Flight Profiles of Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21b Altitude (m) 18…
  • p. 79 …but can into the Baltic and Black Sea Fleet air forces to date remain submerged for…
  • p. 80 …In the antiship role, wartime operational con- against ships at sea. The Fitters, however, all of…
  • p. 83 …Pact fleets in the Baltic and Black Seas. IL-38 May TU-142 Bear F bottom…
  • p. 84 …Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO Sea Lines of Communication 142. In wartime, the Soviets…
  • p. 85 …of a conflict when NATO Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and much of the Norwegian would…
  • p. 86 Table II-9 Northern Fleet submarine bases and the North Atlantic sea lanes. They point out…
  • p. 87 …In the Black Sea area, the combined Nuclear weapons allocations that we have noted strength of…
  • p. 95 …with either land- or sea-based missile forces. The LRA H-II SSBN . 4/12 intermediate…
  • p. 96 …This latest Soviet bomber has a combat particularly naval task forces at sea During exercises, radius…
  • p. 100 …Sea-Level Thrust-kN (lb r) 120 (27,000) 105 (23,500) Installed Maximum Afterburner Sea…
  • p. 102 …bulk-fill artillery and mor- ships at sea, points of embarkation, forward storage tar shells; multiple…
  • p. 112 …A shortage of technicians would oilers from their home fleets could operate at sea for probably…
  • p. 113 …The Soviets to sustain operations at sea. rarely have been observed practicing this, however, and instead…
  • p. 114 …For naval and civilian, probably would seek to minimize example, emergency action drills at sea are…
  • p. 115 …developed to permit the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets to foreseeable future, of marginal value be…
  • p. 118 …Pact operations in the western and sea areas, including islands (archipelagos), Baltic Sea also would be…
  • p. 121 …Barents Sea Maritime / T VD 49 shr rri s / Norwegian ICELAND '1 I ' Sea T''f…
  • p. 122 …The Combined Black Sea Fleet would be formed from the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and the…
  • p. 127 …t ,,D ES MA ! R K y 7 ~ ~ §.~.Baltic 50ea North Sea -? - ASNDT1 4... . NETHERLANDS 1…
  • p. 131 …units and with additional naval units at sea-would choose to attack with the two-front…
  • p. 139 …4 NATO airbases Balte sea- HAWK missile belt - Penetration corridor - - North Sea i/ POLAND - West Berlin…
  • p. 144 …This buffer for Pact territory, and defend Pact sea lines of would require effective coordination of…
  • p. 145 …b The soviet Baltic Sea Fleet. Not included are minor surface combatants or 10 reserve ships…
  • p. 146 …The Pact clearly is aware that the success of its infantry regiment, the Polish sea landing…
  • p. 147 …Pact planners also of ships assigned to protect Baltic sea lines would be recognize that the…
  • p. 148 …these air naval forces from the Black Sea. It also would operations, and the speed with…
  • p. 149 …southwestern Brigrades .........-- 9e - - littoral of the Black Sea. Soviet surface naval forces Soviet divisions in Hungary…
  • p. 150 …and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there into IV-26
  • p. 151 …Pact air and sea superiority in the Black Sea would be particularly critical to the Pact…
  • p. 152 …the initialattacks by Soviet ships and submarines of bThe Black Sea Fleet and the Mediterranean Squadron…
  • p. 153 …The Soviets no doubt realize, however, that the Sea Fleet, although reinforcement from the Northern advantages…
  • p. 154 …be reinforced cally available in the Black Sea Fleet, seven to before the outbreak of hostilities…
  • p. 155 -T _P.3_re4' few, if any, large combatants from the Black Sea the Straits as…
  • p. 156 …See paragraphs 102 and forces in the Norwegian Sea. Initially, we could expect 103 and table…
  • p. 157 …Sealifted ground forces could gian Sea. If the Soviets chose to avoid Norwegian- reinforce airborne and…
  • p. 158 …The Soviets have about 130 operational cruise Barents Seas and their approaches apparently consist missile and…
  • p. 159 …submarines normally deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. 169. Another view "1holds that, in a typical initial…
  • p. 160 …1 Sea control N eMurmansk _ G+UK "r' Gap ''-1 (5Sea denial, ?" Holy locit tRosyth Moscow…
  • p. 161 …Once hostilities cover the approaches to the Norwegian Sea. Our began, however, these forces probably would…
Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the
fully equipped Soviet airborne division (7,300 men), or inventory usually requires a more highly trained
the combat assault elements of two divisions, could be soldier to operate or maintain it. Because the con-
lifted. NSWP airborne units have virtually no lift script's term of service is now two years, the Soviets
capabilities of their own, and depend almost entirely are faced with the requirement to provide more
on Soviet VTA for this purpose. training in less time for their largely conscript army.
This has prompted the Soviets to modify their training
Special Operations Units system to include increased emphasis on preinduction
training, individual specialist training, and intensified
38. The Soviets have units which they refer to as unit training.
special operations brigades. These are tasked to carry 42. The training of Soviet soldiers begins before
out long-range reconnaissance and sabotage against their induction into the armed forces. Compulsory
such targets as nuclear weapons facilities, airfields,
depots, air defense installations. and command aid preinduction training, which is prescribed by the
eotso facilities. Peacetime strengths of the units are Soviet 1967 Law on Universal Military Service, is
believed to range from about 250 men to several times given either in secondary schools, in the professional
thaelige Thy an e ompbose of ane toumeraf tes and technical education system, or at places of work. Itthat figure. They are com osed of a number of teams includes a 140-hour basic training course designed towhose strength may vary from three to 15 men, familiarize youths with the armed forces and provide
psychological preparation for military service. Tactical
39. We have identified one of these units in East field training is conducted in summer camps and
Germany and several in the western military districts includes weapons familiarization and live firing,
of the USSR. Similar units also exist in all NSWP marches, and tactical drills. Many specialists for the
countries. Virtually all members of these units receive armed forces also receive some training by the
parachute training and some instruction in demolition Voluntary Society for Assistance to the Army, Navy,
and foreign language. Some are known to be trained as and Air. Force (DOSAAF), the Soviet preinduction
frogmen. There are reports indicating that the teams training organization. These specialists, who have com-
may wear civilian clothes or the uniforms of NATO pleted their compulsory preinduction training, receive
member countries. additional training in such fields as aviation, scuba
diving, parachuting, vehicle operation and mainten-
ance, radio/radar operation, and electronics. A recent
Soviet article stated that a third of the conscripts
40. Pact armed forces depend heavily on universal received specialized military-technical training in the
conscription to meet military manpower require- DOSAAF.
ments. In the USSR, conscripts make up roughly 75
percent of total active strength. Terms of service vary 43. After induction into the armed forces, approxi-
by nation and branch of service but generally are two mately one-fourth to one-half of all conscripts are sent
or three years in length. The Soviets induct their to training units or schools for six months of NCO or
conscripts semiannually, usually for a two-year term spcialist training in such areas as tank gunnery and
of service. The induction of new Soviet conscripts, the radio operation. On completion of their courses, sot-
release of those whose terms of service have expired desji hi nt uigtenx ro oain
reeasenfthseime to s ofserce hades i Conscripts not assigned to training units or schools areand the assignment to units of the graduates of sn ietyt hi nt hr hyrcieapoi
noncommissioned officer (NCO) and specialist train- sent directly to their unit, where they receive approxi-
ing courses all occur during the semiannual induction mately four weeks of basic training, after which they
periods in May and November. This massive turnover, participate in regular unit training. In addition, the
at times as much as one third of unit strength, cause Soviets are making an effort to retain skilled enlisted
considerable disruption. There is a major reduction in specialists. In 1972 the rank of warrant officer (pra-
training and exercise activity while troop rotation is porshchik) was introduced into the ground forces and
under way. Approximately 125,000 troops are rotated strong efforts were made to recruit enlisted men as
every six rnonths in the Groups of Forces in Eastern warrant officers. The program for extended service
EveroyesNCOs (sverkhsrochnik) was dropped in 1972 when the
rank of warrant officer was introduced, but was
iL. The Soviets have upgraded their ground force reinstated a year later in order to retain highly trained
training in recent years as a result of two factors. The soldiers.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.