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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
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- Category II: These divisions also have a full Soviet and 2 million NSWP military personnel were
complement of combat equipment, but frequently released from active duty and constitute a ready
lack some support equipment. Assigned person- reserve to flesh out understrength units upon mobiliza-
nel strengths vary from about one-third of tion. In addition, the Pact countries have earmarked a
authorized wartime strength in some NSWP large number of civilian trucking entities for wartime
divisions to about two-thirds in Soviet divisions. use by the military. Similar arrangements exist for
These divisions could probably mobilize reserve medical units that would be formed from civilian
personnel and equipment and begin movement hospitals, An unknown number of Soviet civilian
within about 48 hours, with selected elements reservists employed within the Soviet Groups of Forces
moving even more rapidly. Their initial combat are also reservists earmarked for such mobilization fill.
effectiveness would be lower than that of Cate- if available in large numbers they could permit the
gory I divisions. Soviets to meet their most immediate manpower
Category III: 'These divisions are manned at requirements in a matter of hours. In an exercise in- CaeoyIIhs iiin r anda the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany (GSFG) in
cadre strength with manpower levels ranging
from1974, the time required for these reservists to report to
their designated units was from four to six hours.
wartime personnel. They apparently have most
of their essential combat equipment, except 35. Organizations and elements at army and front
APCs, but have less support equipment than level, particularly rear service units, require longer to
Category Ii divisions. Category III divisions gen- mobilize than the combat units which they support. In
erally would require 72 hours or more to mobi- addition, significant portions of the Soviet and other
lize reserve personnel and equipment and begin Pact rear services required for wartime operations do
movement. Their initial combat effectiveness not exist in peacetime. Major elements, such as medi-
would be lower than Category II divisions.. cal and transport units, would have to be mobilized
- Mobilization Divisions: In addition to the above from the civilian economy.
categories of active divisions, the Soviets have a Airborne Forces
number of mobilization divisions. In peacetime
these divisions consist only of small staff and 36. In addition to tank and motorized rifle units
cadre elements. They would be equipped during intended for theater war, the Pact also maintains large
mobilization from equipment stockpiled in divi- airborne forces. These forces, which have remained
sional sets and manned from pools of reservists or relatively constant in numbers over the past decade,
designated personnel. We estimate that these include eight Soviet divisions (one is a training divi-
divisions would require several weeks of prepara- sion), one Polish division, and smaller units in each of
tion before they would be ready for service, the other non-Soviet countries. Soviet airborne divi-
possibly in a rear area security role or as replen- sions are centrally controlled by Airborne Troops
ishinents for the general reserve. The Soviets Headquarters in Moscow and are considered strategic
maintain a total of 15 such divisions in the USSR reserves of the Supreme High Command (VGK).
opposite NATO, and the NSWP countries have Soviet airborne divisions could be used in a variety of
.10 or I. wartime situations ranging from operations under the
33. All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions.
zatio syste t ns hai w llrganzdrstr h- The Soviet divisions also have important potential useszation systems that can rapidlly fill understrength
ground units with personnel and equipment from the other than war in Europe, such as intervention in
. . .Third World areas.civilian economy. These systems are built around a
network of local committees which maintain lists of 37. Soviet airborne division command and control,
reservists and civilian equipment and which are in- ground mobility, and antitank capabilities have been
tended to contact, assemble, and deliver these re- improved with the introduction of new equipment,
sources rapidly to the local military units. The system although this additional equipment has placed an
has not been tested on a broad scale, although local added burden on the Soviets' limited airlift resources.
tests occur often. If all the current assets of Soviet Military Transport
34. The base of personnel and equipment. in the *See National Intelligence Estimate 11-10-79 for details of Soviet
Pact economies is adequate to support Pact mobiliza- capabilities for projecting military power and influence in distant
tion plans. During the past five years, about 5 million areas.
11-12
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.