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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
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- Category II: These divisions also have a full Soviet and 2 million NSWP military personnel were
complement of combat equipment, but frequently released from active duty and constitute a ready
lack some support equipment. Assigned person- reserve to flesh out understrength units upon mobiliza-
nel strengths vary from about one-third of tion. In addition, the Pact countries have earmarked a
authorized wartime strength in some NSWP large number of civilian trucking entities for wartime
divisions to about two-thirds in Soviet divisions. use by the military. Similar arrangements exist for
These divisions could probably mobilize reserve medical units that would be formed from civilian
personnel and equipment and begin movement hospitals, An unknown number of Soviet civilian
within about 48 hours, with selected elements reservists employed within the Soviet Groups of Forces
moving even more rapidly. Their initial combat are also reservists earmarked for such mobilization fill.
effectiveness would be lower than that of Cate- if available in large numbers they could permit the
gory I divisions. Soviets to meet their most immediate manpower
Category III: 'These divisions are manned at requirements in a matter of hours. In an exercise in- CaeoyIIhs iiin r anda the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany (GSFG) in
cadre strength with manpower levels ranging
from1974, the time required for these reservists to report to
their designated units was from four to six hours.
wartime personnel. They apparently have most
of their essential combat equipment, except 35. Organizations and elements at army and front
APCs, but have less support equipment than level, particularly rear service units, require longer to
Category Ii divisions. Category III divisions gen- mobilize than the combat units which they support. In
erally would require 72 hours or more to mobi- addition, significant portions of the Soviet and other
lize reserve personnel and equipment and begin Pact rear services required for wartime operations do
movement. Their initial combat effectiveness not exist in peacetime. Major elements, such as medi-
would be lower than Category II divisions.. cal and transport units, would have to be mobilized
- Mobilization Divisions: In addition to the above from the civilian economy.
categories of active divisions, the Soviets have a Airborne Forces
number of mobilization divisions. In peacetime
these divisions consist only of small staff and 36. In addition to tank and motorized rifle units
cadre elements. They would be equipped during intended for theater war, the Pact also maintains large
mobilization from equipment stockpiled in divi- airborne forces. These forces, which have remained
sional sets and manned from pools of reservists or relatively constant in numbers over the past decade,
designated personnel. We estimate that these include eight Soviet divisions (one is a training divi-
divisions would require several weeks of prepara- sion), one Polish division, and smaller units in each of
tion before they would be ready for service, the other non-Soviet countries. Soviet airborne divi-
possibly in a rear area security role or as replen- sions are centrally controlled by Airborne Troops
ishinents for the general reserve. The Soviets Headquarters in Moscow and are considered strategic
maintain a total of 15 such divisions in the USSR reserves of the Supreme High Command (VGK).
opposite NATO, and the NSWP countries have Soviet airborne divisions could be used in a variety of
.10 or I. wartime situations ranging from operations under the
33. All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions.
zatio syste t ns hai w llrganzdrstr h- The Soviet divisions also have important potential useszation systems that can rapidlly fill understrength
ground units with personnel and equipment from the other than war in Europe, such as intervention in
. . .Third World areas.civilian economy. These systems are built around a
network of local committees which maintain lists of 37. Soviet airborne division command and control,
reservists and civilian equipment and which are in- ground mobility, and antitank capabilities have been
tended to contact, assemble, and deliver these re- improved with the introduction of new equipment,
sources rapidly to the local military units. The system although this additional equipment has placed an
has not been tested on a broad scale, although local added burden on the Soviets' limited airlift resources.
tests occur often. If all the current assets of Soviet Military Transport
34. The base of personnel and equipment. in the *See National Intelligence Estimate 11-10-79 for details of Soviet
Pact economies is adequate to support Pact mobiliza- capabilities for projecting military power and influence in distant
tion plans. During the past five years, about 5 million areas.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.