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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
Top
tubes mounted on a rotating pedestal similar to the tive in a conventional role against point targets. Soviet
SA-9. It was first observed in 1977 mounted on a forces also have the SS-12 Scaleboard and its follow-on,
3RDM-2 scout car. The A'T-6 Spiral was first ob- the SS-22, A new missile, the SS-21, is being deployed
served during a firing exercise in East Germany in to Soviet units as a replacement for the FROG. The
1978 being launched from modified Hind D helicop- FROG, the SS-21, and possibly the SS-22 also can carry
ters. Antitank (AT) guns and recoilless guns have not a cluster-munition warhead.
received the priority in development and deploy-
ment that the ATGM has in recent years. The 100- Warsaw Pact Ground Force Divisions
mm AT gun is standard in Soviet units, but 85-mm
antitank guns are retained in some, divisional and 31. Tank and motorized rifle divisions are the basic
nondivisional AT units. tactical units of Pact ground forces.' The Pact main-
tains a grand total of 217 active tank and motorized
28. NSWP forces have a wide variety of antitank rifle divisions (166 Soviet and 51 East European) at
weapons including recoilless guns, AT guns from 57- varying strengths in its peacetime ground forces. The
nm to 100-mm, and AT guided missiles. Except for a number of such divisions opposite NATO stands at
few Czechoslovak-produced weapons, all are of Soviet 154. (See table II-3 and figure 11-7). The Soviets have
origin. The East Germrans are equipped with the latest an additional 16 tank and motorized rifle divisions in
Soviet 100-mm antitank gun, the T-12/T-12A, but the the Moscow, Ural, Volga, and Turkestan Military
other forces retain older weapons of various calibers, Districts which could be used against NATO or
which are inferior to the better Soviet weapons. NSWP elsewhere.
forces are gradually improving their antiarmor capa-
bilities by acquiring more ATGM launcher vehicles 32. In peacetime, Pact divisions are maintained in
and manpack ATGM sets. The East Germans, Poles, various states of readiness suitable for the conduct of
and Romanians, for example, have received the AT-4 limited combat operations on short notice and for
Spigot. Only the East Germans are currently equipped generating large forces through rapid mobilization.
to Soviet standards with Sagger ATGM launcher vehi- We classify Pact ground force divisions according to
cles, but the Czechoslovaks are increasing the numbers our estimates of their peacetime manning and equip-
of ATGM launcher vehicles in their forces. ment levels:
29. Engineering Equipment. The principal sup- - Category I: These divisions are estimated to have
port task for the engineers is to help sustain the a full complement of combat equipment and
mobility of Pact offensive forces. The Pact has devel- more than three-fourths of their authorized war-
oped modern engineer and river-crossing equipment. time personnel. All divisions in the Soviet Groups
With the PMP ribbon bridge, the Soviets have spanned of Forces and eight East European divisions are
a river the size of the Rhine in approximately half an manned closer to wartime strength. All Category
hour during exercises. The Pact also has a large stock I divisions could be brought up to strength and
of ferries and tracked amphibious transporters, and a ready to move within 24 hours.
variety of mine-clearing vehicles which fire rocket-
propelled, explosive line charges to clear gaps in
minefields. In addition, the Pact has vehicles fitted Table II-3
with mine-clearing plows, light dozer blades, and
other mechanical devices. Vehicles such as these also Warsaw Pact Tank and Motorized Rifle
could be used to clear rubble and obstacles. Divisions Opposite NATO *
January 1979
30. Surface-to-Surface Missiles and Rockets.-
The Pact arsenal of rockets and surface-to-surface In Eastern Europe In the
missiles includes free rockets over ground (FROGs) Soviet NSWP USSR Total
and short-range ballistic missiles. All Pact ground
forces are equipped with FROGs and SS-1 Scuds, ank 16 15 22 53
which are capable of delivering conventional, as well Motorized Rifle 15 36 50 101
as chermical, and niuclear warheads. The poor accuracy *See footnote to table 11-1, following paragraph 3. See table B-1 in
of these systems would make them relatively ineffec- annex 13for detailed order of battle of Pact ground force divisions.
For a more detailed discussion of Pact tactical rockets and
missiles, see paragraphs 159 and 160 in this chapter. sPact airborne divisions are discussed in paragraphs 36 and 37.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.