Documents / FOIA release

Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
cal, radiological) protective system to allow operations missiles on the same vehicle-a characteristic which
in a toxic or radioactive environment. provides greater operational flexibility.
19. Variants of the BMP are also entering the Soviet 24. Replacement of the S-60 gun system with SA-6s
ground forces in increasing numbers. These include and SA-8s has proceeded much more rapidly in Soviet
the M-1974 command vehicle, the M-1975 surveil- forces in Eastern Europe than in those in the USSR or
lance vehicle, and the M-1976 reconnaissance vehicle, NSWP forces. Two-thirds of Soviet tank and motor-
which is replacing the PT-76, the only light tank in ized rifle divisions in Eastern Europe have been
service. The BMD, a lightly armored, airdromppahle, equipped with one or another of these systems. (See
assault vehicle is assigned to Soviet airborne divisions. table II-2.) Only about 10 percent of Soviet divisions in
It is amphibious and has the same weapons as the the USSR and four NSWP divisions have SA-6s,
larger 3MP, plus two additional machineguns. however, and no SA-8s have been fielded yet with
20. The NSWP ground forces are on the whole still non-Soviet forces. SA-6 regiments have been deployed
predlomiantly equipped with older A PCs. The East at army level, however, in most NSWP countries. S-60
German, Czechoslovak, and Polish ground forces, guns replaced by mobile SAMs may be reorganized
German,~~~~~~~~~ mzcolvkn ois rudfre, ito AA units for additional air defense of fronts orhowever, have large numbers of the more modern armies.
APCs, including some 1,600 BMPs and several thou-
sand BTR-60s or a Czechoslovak/Polish-manufactured 25. Pact ground forces are also equipped with the
equivalent. Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria are SA-7 Grail and SA-9 Gaskin missile systems. The SA-7
largely equipped with older APCs. Overall, the NSWP is fielded at the company level. It is a man-portable
ground forces have about 11,000 APCs. system with an infrared homing missile and is de-
21. Ground Force Air Defense Systems. Pact Table II-2
ground forces opposite NATO are equipped with a
variety of tactical surface-to-air missile (SAM) and Status of Air Defense Modernization in
antiaircraft (AA) gun systems. A program to replace Warsaw Pact Ground Force Divisions
gun systems and older SAMs with more mobile SAM Opposite NATO a
systems was begun in the late 1.960s and continues, January 1979
with Soviet units in Eastern Europe and along the -
Sino-Soviet border receiving highest priority. Upgrad- Equipped With
ing of the remaining Soviet units and of the NSWP
forces is proceeding more slowly. Divisions b SA-6 SA-8 AA
Soviet
22. The SA-4 Ganef, a long-range, medium-to-high- In Eastern Europe 31 19 5 7
altitude SAM system (see figure II-5), has replaced the In the USSR 72 7 1 64
older, less mobile SA-2 Guideline in Soviet front- and Total 103 26 6 71
army-level organizations. The SA-4 system represents
a maior improvement over the SA-2 because it has NSWPd
EatGermany 6 3 - 3
twice the range and each launcher has two missiles East Germany13 - - 13
available for refire. It has begun to appear in the Czechoslovakia 10 - - 10
inventories of Czechoslovak, East German, and Polish Hungary 6 1 - 5
forces as well, but in fewer numbers. Each of these Romania 10 - - 10
forces has deployed only one SA-4 brigade. The SA-3 Bulgaria 6 - - 6
Goa is still fielded with Soviet ground forces in the Total 51 4 47
forward area for point defense of airfields. _---- _- ---------- --__
Grand Total 154 30 6 118
23. The SA-6 Gainful and SA-8 Gecko systems are -Seefootnote to table II-1, following paragraph 3.
designed to replace the S-60 57-mm AA gun as b Does not include airborne divisions or the Polish Sea Landing
division-level air defense weapons. The SA-6 is a Division.
mobile, medium-range, low-to--medium altitude sys- . Most combat-ready and some reduced-strength or cadre divi-
tem. The SA-8 is a highly mobile, low-altitude system sions are also equipped with SA-9s and the ZSU-23-4 gun systems.
wvith approximately one-half the maximum missile All Pact divisions probably have the man-portable SA-7.ritane o imelyAf T heSA-8muismuniiu e amongPact Does not include nine army-level SA-6 regiments in Polish,rantge of the SA-6. The SA-8 is unique among Pact Czechoslovak, Hungarian, Romanian, and Bulgarian ground forces.
SAM systems in that it carries both its radar and s--
11-7
oTp-Se et

Not linked to a story yet.

About this file

FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.