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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 8 …I1-41 Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO's Sea Lines of Communication 11-41…
  • p. 9 …IV-25 Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea IV-27 Initial Air and Naval Operations…
  • p. 16 …European NATO and the Warsaw Pact Figure 1 ,'- - "''i 'Fr,~'""' NNA TO countries Benes Sea Warsaw…
  • p. 20 …An area in the Norwegian Sea north of the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom 10
  • p. 21 …The forces of the Baltic and Black Sea Combined Fleets initially would be under the control…
  • p. 22 …To assist in the achievement of air and sea superiority and to protect the amphibious force…
  • p. 23 …The Soviets would attempt to neutralize Western SSBNs near their bases and in the Norwegian Sea…
  • p. 28 …Extent, Emphasis, and Timing of the Soviet Interdiction Campaign Against NATO Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC…
  • p. 30 …Likely Effectiveness of Pact Operations To Achieve Air Superiority and Sea Control in the Baltic Sea…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 42 …At sea the establishment and maintenance of 36. The Soviets recognize the formidable strength Soviet naval…
  • p. 50 …not include airborne divisions or the Polish Sea Landing division-level air defense weapons. The SA…
  • p. 54 …7 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP NorweqianA'Motr iisio rifle Norwegian divisionCategory I Sea Category II Category…
  • p. 60 Peacetime Location of Warsaw Pact Air Forces Opposite NATO Figure 1-8 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP…
  • p. 71 …For operations in the Mediterranean Sea, January 1979 the Black Sea Fleet furnishes most of the…
  • p. 72 …PO A ; re -t { - Black Sea Fleet ROMANI A -UGM (Dsevastopo - BUGRAFleet Caspian headquarters Black Sea…
  • p. 73 …If the Soviets were not concerned with covert deployment of their ships to sea, they could…
  • p. 74 …number of ships able to put to sea on short have some 30 principal surface combatants…
  • p. 75 …The wartime missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea…
  • p. 77 lop et Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21a Maximum system Payload (kg) Speed…
  • p. 78 Nominal Flight Profiles of Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21b Altitude (m) 18…
  • p. 79 …but can into the Baltic and Black Sea Fleet air forces to date remain submerged for…
  • p. 80 …In the antiship role, wartime operational con- against ships at sea. The Fitters, however, all of…
  • p. 83 …Pact fleets in the Baltic and Black Seas. IL-38 May TU-142 Bear F bottom…
  • p. 84 …Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO Sea Lines of Communication 142. In wartime, the Soviets…
  • p. 85 …of a conflict when NATO Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and much of the Norwegian would…
  • p. 86 Table II-9 Northern Fleet submarine bases and the North Atlantic sea lanes. They point out…
  • p. 87 …In the Black Sea area, the combined Nuclear weapons allocations that we have noted strength of…
  • p. 95 …with either land- or sea-based missile forces. The LRA H-II SSBN . 4/12 intermediate…
  • p. 96 …This latest Soviet bomber has a combat particularly naval task forces at sea During exercises, radius…
  • p. 100 …Sea-Level Thrust-kN (lb r) 120 (27,000) 105 (23,500) Installed Maximum Afterburner Sea…
  • p. 102 …bulk-fill artillery and mor- ships at sea, points of embarkation, forward storage tar shells; multiple…
  • p. 112 …A shortage of technicians would oilers from their home fleets could operate at sea for probably…
  • p. 113 …The Soviets to sustain operations at sea. rarely have been observed practicing this, however, and instead…
  • p. 114 …For naval and civilian, probably would seek to minimize example, emergency action drills at sea are…
  • p. 115 …developed to permit the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets to foreseeable future, of marginal value be…
  • p. 118 …Pact operations in the western and sea areas, including islands (archipelagos), Baltic Sea also would be…
  • p. 121 …Barents Sea Maritime / T VD 49 shr rri s / Norwegian ICELAND '1 I ' Sea T''f…
  • p. 122 …The Combined Black Sea Fleet would be formed from the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and the…
  • p. 127 …t ,,D ES MA ! R K y 7 ~ ~ §.~.Baltic 50ea North Sea -? - ASNDT1 4... . NETHERLANDS 1…
  • p. 131 …units and with additional naval units at sea-would choose to attack with the two-front…
  • p. 139 …4 NATO airbases Balte sea- HAWK missile belt - Penetration corridor - - North Sea i/ POLAND - West Berlin…
  • p. 144 …This buffer for Pact territory, and defend Pact sea lines of would require effective coordination of…
  • p. 145 …b The soviet Baltic Sea Fleet. Not included are minor surface combatants or 10 reserve ships…
  • p. 146 …The Pact clearly is aware that the success of its infantry regiment, the Polish sea landing…
  • p. 147 …Pact planners also of ships assigned to protect Baltic sea lines would be recognize that the…
  • p. 148 …these air naval forces from the Black Sea. It also would operations, and the speed with…
  • p. 149 …southwestern Brigrades .........-- 9e - - littoral of the Black Sea. Soviet surface naval forces Soviet divisions in Hungary…
  • p. 150 …and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there into IV-26
  • p. 151 …Pact air and sea superiority in the Black Sea would be particularly critical to the Pact…
  • p. 152 …the initialattacks by Soviet ships and submarines of bThe Black Sea Fleet and the Mediterranean Squadron…
  • p. 153 …The Soviets no doubt realize, however, that the Sea Fleet, although reinforcement from the Northern advantages…
  • p. 154 …be reinforced cally available in the Black Sea Fleet, seven to before the outbreak of hostilities…
  • p. 155 -T _P.3_re4' few, if any, large combatants from the Black Sea the Straits as…
  • p. 156 …See paragraphs 102 and forces in the Norwegian Sea. Initially, we could expect 103 and table…
  • p. 157 …Sealifted ground forces could gian Sea. If the Soviets chose to avoid Norwegian- reinforce airborne and…
  • p. 158 …The Soviets have about 130 operational cruise Barents Seas and their approaches apparently consist missile and…
  • p. 159 …submarines normally deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. 169. Another view "1holds that, in a typical initial…
  • p. 160 …1 Sea control N eMurmansk _ G+UK "r' Gap ''-1 (5Sea denial, ?" Holy locit tRosyth Moscow…
  • p. 161 …Once hostilities cover the approaches to the Norwegian Sea. Our began, however, these forces probably would…
cal, radiological) protective system to allow operations missiles on the same vehicle-a characteristic which
in a toxic or radioactive environment. provides greater operational flexibility.
19. Variants of the BMP are also entering the Soviet 24. Replacement of the S-60 gun system with SA-6s
ground forces in increasing numbers. These include and SA-8s has proceeded much more rapidly in Soviet
the M-1974 command vehicle, the M-1975 surveil- forces in Eastern Europe than in those in the USSR or
lance vehicle, and the M-1976 reconnaissance vehicle, NSWP forces. Two-thirds of Soviet tank and motor-
which is replacing the PT-76, the only light tank in ized rifle divisions in Eastern Europe have been
service. The BMD, a lightly armored, airdromppahle, equipped with one or another of these systems. (See
assault vehicle is assigned to Soviet airborne divisions. table II-2.) Only about 10 percent of Soviet divisions in
It is amphibious and has the same weapons as the the USSR and four NSWP divisions have SA-6s,
larger 3MP, plus two additional machineguns. however, and no SA-8s have been fielded yet with
20. The NSWP ground forces are on the whole still non-Soviet forces. SA-6 regiments have been deployed
predlomiantly equipped with older A PCs. The East at army level, however, in most NSWP countries. S-60
German, Czechoslovak, and Polish ground forces, guns replaced by mobile SAMs may be reorganized
German,~~~~~~~~~ mzcolvkn ois rudfre, ito AA units for additional air defense of fronts orhowever, have large numbers of the more modern armies.
APCs, including some 1,600 BMPs and several thou-
sand BTR-60s or a Czechoslovak/Polish-manufactured 25. Pact ground forces are also equipped with the
equivalent. Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria are SA-7 Grail and SA-9 Gaskin missile systems. The SA-7
largely equipped with older APCs. Overall, the NSWP is fielded at the company level. It is a man-portable
ground forces have about 11,000 APCs. system with an infrared homing missile and is de-
21. Ground Force Air Defense Systems. Pact Table II-2
ground forces opposite NATO are equipped with a
variety of tactical surface-to-air missile (SAM) and Status of Air Defense Modernization in
antiaircraft (AA) gun systems. A program to replace Warsaw Pact Ground Force Divisions
gun systems and older SAMs with more mobile SAM Opposite NATO a
systems was begun in the late 1.960s and continues, January 1979
with Soviet units in Eastern Europe and along the -
Sino-Soviet border receiving highest priority. Upgrad- Equipped With
ing of the remaining Soviet units and of the NSWP
forces is proceeding more slowly. Divisions b SA-6 SA-8 AA
Soviet
22. The SA-4 Ganef, a long-range, medium-to-high- In Eastern Europe 31 19 5 7
altitude SAM system (see figure II-5), has replaced the In the USSR 72 7 1 64
older, less mobile SA-2 Guideline in Soviet front- and Total 103 26 6 71
army-level organizations. The SA-4 system represents
a maior improvement over the SA-2 because it has NSWPd
EatGermany 6 3 - 3
twice the range and each launcher has two missiles East Germany13 - - 13
available for refire. It has begun to appear in the Czechoslovakia 10 - - 10
inventories of Czechoslovak, East German, and Polish Hungary 6 1 - 5
forces as well, but in fewer numbers. Each of these Romania 10 - - 10
forces has deployed only one SA-4 brigade. The SA-3 Bulgaria 6 - - 6
Goa is still fielded with Soviet ground forces in the Total 51 4 47
forward area for point defense of airfields. _---- _- ---------- --__
Grand Total 154 30 6 118
23. The SA-6 Gainful and SA-8 Gecko systems are -Seefootnote to table II-1, following paragraph 3.
designed to replace the S-60 57-mm AA gun as b Does not include airborne divisions or the Polish Sea Landing
division-level air defense weapons. The SA-6 is a Division.
mobile, medium-range, low-to--medium altitude sys- . Most combat-ready and some reduced-strength or cadre divi-
tem. The SA-8 is a highly mobile, low-altitude system sions are also equipped with SA-9s and the ZSU-23-4 gun systems.
wvith approximately one-half the maximum missile All Pact divisions probably have the man-portable SA-7.ritane o imelyAf T heSA-8muismuniiu e amongPact Does not include nine army-level SA-6 regiments in Polish,rantge of the SA-6. The SA-8 is unique among Pact Czechoslovak, Hungarian, Romanian, and Bulgarian ground forces.
SAM systems in that it carries both its radar and s--
11-7
oTp-Se et

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.