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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
Top
artillery units in both tank and motorized rifle divi- salvo carried on board. Poland and Czechoslovakia
sions also are being expanded. For example, six-piece, now have a few 122-mm self-propelled howitzers, and
122-mm howitzer batteries in the motorized rifle Czechoslovakia has added a new artillery division.
regiments in Soviet motorized rifle divisions have 18. Armored Personnel Carriers and Other
grown to 18-piece battalions. Combat Vehicles. Soviet divisions in Eastern Europe
16. In addition to artillery weapon systems, the are equipped with a full complement of APCs. Short-
Soviets are deploying a number of new artillery ages remain in Soviet divisions in the western USSR,
support vehicles to improve their artillery fire direc- however, with some divisions lacking as much as two-
tion, control, and target acquisition capabilities. Laser thirds of their APCs. One-half to two-thirds of the
rangefinders, fire-control computers, and fire-control 20,500 Soviet APCs opposite NATO are now modern
data transmission systems have been issued to some amphibious models. (See figure II-4). The rest are
artillery units. There is also evidence that the Soviets older models with relatively poor cross-country mobil-
now are producing and training with proximity fuses, ity. The Soviets continue to replace these APCs with
which will make their artillery considerably more improved models-the BTR-60PB and the BMP. The
effective against unarmored vehicles and troops with- BTR-60PB is an amphibious, wheeled APC which
out overhead protection, provides good mobility and armor protection from
small arms and shell fragments. The BMP is an
17. Modernization and some expansion are under amphibious, tracked vehicle designed to operate
way in NSWP artillery units but at a much slower closely with tanks and has greater armor protection
pace than in Soviet units. East Germany is replacing its than the BTR-60PB. It is equipped with a machine-
BM-21 multiple rocket launchers with the Czechoslo- gun, a 73-mm gun, and the Sagger antitank guided
vak RM-70 system, which can rapidly reload a second missile launcher. It also has a CBR (chemical, biologi-
Modern Warsaw Pact Armored Fighting Vehicles and APCs Figure 11-4
BMP BTR-60PB BMD (Airborne)
Armament 73-mm gun 14.5-mm and 7.62-mm 73-mm gun
7.62-mm machinegun machineguns Three 7.62-mm machineguns
Mount for antitank guided missile Mount for antitank guided missile
Weight (metric tons) 13.6 10.3 8.0
Length/height (m) 6.7/1.9 7.2/2.3 5.4/1.7
Speed(km/h) 70 80 80
Cruising range (km) 500 500 320
Crew 3 3 2
Number of passengers 8 14 6
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.