Documents / FOIA release
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
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7. The Soviets are aware of the improved technol- 322 and in Soviet motorized rifle divisions from 188 to ogy and growing numbers of NATO antitank weapons 214. Those Soviet motorized rifle divisions opposite and have demonstrated this awareness by modifying NATO which have independent tank battalions have their forces and tactics to counter the antitank threat. as many as 265 tanks.' As in earlier Soviet responses to changing perceptions 13. Artillery. In all, the Pact has assigned about of battlefield conditions, such adjustments have not led 18,200 artillery pieces of 122-mm or larger to its to any diminution of the tank forces, or any major ground forces opposite NATO. Of these, some 8,800 change in the way the Soviets see these tank forces (3,600 Soviet, 5,200 NSWP) are located in Eastern performing. Indeed, they have made even further Europe. Pact artillery is still predominantly towed but increases to their tank strength and have begun pro- is being improved by the addition of four new self- pcing newtank models,ropelled models and a new multiple rocket launcher. 8. The mainstay of the Pact ground forces is the The Soviets are continuing to replace the towed 122- medium tank. In all, Pact forces opposite NATO mm howitzers with self-propelled models in their have about 45,000 medium tanks at their disposal. motorized rifle regiments. The new 152-mm self- Of these about 25,000 (10,500 Soviet, 14,500 propelled howitzer also is continuing to enter the NSWP) are located in Eastern Europe. Soviet inventory. Thus far, it has replaced older towed pieces forces are equipped with a mix of T-54/55, T-62, in the artillery regiments of several Soviet motorized T-64, and T-72 models, while the NSWP armies rifle and tank divisions and at least one artillery rely almost exclusively on the T-54/55 series, with division. Because the self-propelled weapons provide some T-34s still in the active forces. The T-55, superior cross-country mobility and protection for which was first manufactured in 1958, is still in their crews, they are better suited to support fast- production; production of the T-62 ended in 1975. moving armored attacks. (See figure II-3.) 9. In the last few years, two new tanks, the T-64 14. A new 203-mm self-propelled gun and a new and T-72, have been issued to Soviet ground forces. 240-mm self-propelled mortar are being deployed in Both tanks incorporate better armor protection, a 125- heavy artillery brigades in the USSR as replacements mm smoothbore gun, an automatic loading system, for their older towed predecessors. Both systems are and an electro-optic, possibly laser, rangefinder. (See capable of firing nuclear rounds and, although neither figure II-2.) Both tanks also have a stabilizing system has yet been sighted outside the USSR, we estimate on the main gun enabling the tank crew to aim and that they will be deployed eventually with Soviet fire on the move, forces in Eastern Europe.' 10. The T-64 is assigned both to Soviet units in the 15. A 16-tube multiple rocket launcher of about USSR and to those in Eastern Europe. Some 4,500 to 240-mm caliber has been fielded with the Soviet 6,000 T-64 tanks have been produced, of which about artillery division in East Germany. We have identified 2,600 are in Eastern Europe. Some 6,000 T-72s have 36 launchers thus far. If fielded in quantity, this been produced thus far. All have been assigned to weapon would increase Pact capabilities for massed Soviet units in the USSR. Thus far, however, only fire support during conventional operations. Soviet about 1,200 T-72s have been confirmed with Soviet units in the military districts of the USSR opposite a There are varying estimates of the number of Soviet motorized NATO. rifle divisions which currently have independent tank battalions (ITBs). According to one estimate, about two-thirds of Soviet 11. The T-72, or an improved version, probably motorized rifle divisions in Eastern Europe have ITBs but few, if will be the main production tank well into the any, divisions in the western USSR do. This is the view of the Central Intelligence Agency; the Director, Defense Intelligence 1980s. The T-72 is heavier than its predecessors but Agency; and the Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, is faster and quieter, and has a lower silhouette than Department of State. Another view is that all Soviet motorized the T-54/55 or T-62. It also has an improved suspen- rifle divisions in Eastern Europe currently have ITBs. The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director, National Security Agency; the Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army; diesel engine, and composite or laminated armor and the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the designed to provide increased protection against Air Force. The latter two further believe that, for planning high-explosive antitank (HEAT) warheads. purposes, all Soviet motorized rifle divisions in the USSR also would, when committed to combat, have ITBs. 12. Since the late 1960s the number of medium s For a more detailed discussion of Soviet nuclear artillery, see tanks in Soviet tank divisions has increased from 313 to paragraphs-161 and 162 in this chapter. 11-3 Top -sect
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.