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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
lop
treaty. The Convention permits defensively oriented includes reconnaissance and signal intelligence efforts
BW programs which the Soviets are known to have. to identify and locate NATO's electronic control sys-
available evidence do not tems and to determine their vulnerabilities. In the
treat oliensive use of biological weapons. We assume, Soviet view, radioelectronic combat is to be integrated
however, that the Soviets are continuing research on into all phases of warfare, and we expect that NATO's
biological agents, and that they have facilities which intelligence and electronic control systems at all levels
could be used to produce biological weapons if a would be subject to concerted electronic and physical
decision were made to do so. attack.
E. Electronic Warfare F. Soviet Views of NATO's Military Capabilities
31. The Soviets have a broad-based policy concern- 32. The Soviets respect the capabilities of NATO's
ing electronic warfare-"radioclectronic combat" in armed forces and are keenly aware of NATO's eco-
the Soviet lexicon-and have made it a fundamental nomic potential and its ability, given time, to mobilize
part of their battle planning at the tactical and additional forces. (See figure I-4.) In measuring the
strategic level. The Soviet concept of radioelectronic magnitude of the threat in Europe, they probably
combat is considerably broader than the US concept of include France, inasmuch as France is still a member
electronic warfare. It encompasses jamming, camou- of NATO, continues to participate in some joint
flage, concealment and deception, and operations to planning with NATO commanders, and maintains
destroy NATO's intelligence and electronic control some 50,000 troops in West Germany. The Soviets
systems, especially those for nuclear forces, while probably also weigh the potential contribution of non-
protecting the USSR's own systems and forces. It also NATO countries such as Sweden and Spain.
Selected Indexes of NATO and Warsaw Pact Military Potential Figure 14
Population Labor Force GNP Total Armed Forces
Millions Millions Billion USS Thousands
565 5,606
4,911 1,206
Other
347 374
3,509 2,828
Other
113 -
235818
NATO Pact NATO Pact NATO Pact NATO Pact
~Set
579012 .,9 c,.
189

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.