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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
lop
treaty. The Convention permits defensively oriented includes reconnaissance and signal intelligence efforts
BW programs which the Soviets are known to have. to identify and locate NATO's electronic control sys-
available evidence do not tems and to determine their vulnerabilities. In the
treat oliensive use of biological weapons. We assume, Soviet view, radioelectronic combat is to be integrated
however, that the Soviets are continuing research on into all phases of warfare, and we expect that NATO's
biological agents, and that they have facilities which intelligence and electronic control systems at all levels
could be used to produce biological weapons if a would be subject to concerted electronic and physical
decision were made to do so. attack.
E. Electronic Warfare F. Soviet Views of NATO's Military Capabilities
31. The Soviets have a broad-based policy concern- 32. The Soviets respect the capabilities of NATO's
ing electronic warfare-"radioclectronic combat" in armed forces and are keenly aware of NATO's eco-
the Soviet lexicon-and have made it a fundamental nomic potential and its ability, given time, to mobilize
part of their battle planning at the tactical and additional forces. (See figure I-4.) In measuring the
strategic level. The Soviet concept of radioelectronic magnitude of the threat in Europe, they probably
combat is considerably broader than the US concept of include France, inasmuch as France is still a member
electronic warfare. It encompasses jamming, camou- of NATO, continues to participate in some joint
flage, concealment and deception, and operations to planning with NATO commanders, and maintains
destroy NATO's intelligence and electronic control some 50,000 troops in West Germany. The Soviets
systems, especially those for nuclear forces, while probably also weigh the potential contribution of non-
protecting the USSR's own systems and forces. It also NATO countries such as Sweden and Spain.
Selected Indexes of NATO and Warsaw Pact Military Potential Figure 14
Population Labor Force GNP Total Armed Forces
Millions Millions Billion USS Thousands
565 5,606
4,911 1,206
Other
347 374
3,509 2,828
Other
113 -
235818
NATO Pact NATO Pact NATO Pact NATO Pact
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189

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.