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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979
Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
“US Navy”42 pages
- p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO
or…
- p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely
excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
- p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six
to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
- p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy
estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns,
training programs, and exercise…
- p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets
might choose to attack with…
- p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before
Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
- p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the
fully equipped…
- p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
- p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
- p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out
Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
- p. 84 …The
Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
- p. 85 …NATO
placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
- p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than
probably commit few bombers…
- p. 88 …As of 1975, however,
weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
- p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded
as only a partial solution to the…
- p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets
in NATO Europe, and the 150…
- p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
- p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence,
Department of the Navy.
The longer range and radius values in the…
- p. 113 …Aboard
ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection
249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
- p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the
option of using merchant communications circuits for
command and control…
- p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
- p. 122 …Some common computer programs are
being used for logistics and battle management sup-
13. In wartime…
- p. 145 Top
Table IV-4
Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
- p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing
Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
- p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than
were canceled…
- p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th
sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
- p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
- p. 154 …Many have
air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
- p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
- p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact,
however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
- p. 159 …They probably
Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept
Cruisers ... 1
Missile…
- p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise
missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
- p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft
missiles, thereby reducing the…
- p. 168 …the Soviets
would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close
proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
- p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
- p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit
could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
- p. 179 …Soviet Navy
inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
- p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM
mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
- p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in
Soviets clearly regard the US…
- p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
- p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of
Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
- p. 200 …T s copy
is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
lop t
Summary of Soviet Nuclear Responses as Reflected in Exercises Figure 1-3
Since the Mid-1960s
Soviet Responses
NATO First Nuclear Use in the 1960s in the 1970s
- Small-scale use (limited and selective) - Theaterwide strikes - Continuation of nonnuclear operations
- Not seen in Pact exercises since 1975 - Preemption if possible . Small-scale strikes (forward-based systems)
e Graduated escalation
. Theaterwide strikes
-Large-scale use (theaterwide strikes) -Theaterwide strikes -Theaterwide strikes
- Preemption if possible - Preemption if possible
57901iw e cu
Nonetheless, the
Soviets continue modernization of USSR-based pe-
ripheral strike systems
_rgues that they
still expect to have to resort to the use of these
weapons at some stage of theater nuclear war. Their
uncertainty about their actual ability to deter the West
from launching strategic nuclear strikes against Soviet
territory in the face of a successful Soviet conventional
assault-which is complicated by the existence of
independent French and British nuclear systems tar-
geted against the USSR-further argues against the
likelihood that the Soviets would anticipate much
success in achieving a decoupling strategy.
17. In writings,
Soviet military theorists still warn that escalation to the
intercontinental level would be likely and could occur
at any point during a theater conflict, conventional or
nuclear, although restriction to the theater level is not
ruled out. The Soviets probably see an advantage in
16. We have considered whether the Soviets have limiting the use of nuclear weapons to the theater
adopted a strategy of "decoupling" nuclear war in level, but they continue to plan and prepare against
Central Europe from the employment of peripheral the likelihood that theater nuclear war would involve
systems. We have found no direct evidence of such a strikes on the USSR and escalate to intercontinental
strategy in recent Soviet military writings or informa- conflict.'
tion from other human sources. However, the substan-
tial increases in the number and quality of Pact 'The potential effect of improvements in USSR-based strategic
tactical nuclear systems in Central Europe have pro- systems for peripheral attack, in concert with improvements in
Soviet intercontinental strike systems, on the possibility of decou-
pling theater nuclear war from intercontinental conflict is treated in
there at relatively high intensities without having to NIE 11-3/8-78, Soviet Capabilitiesfor Strategic Nuclear Conflict
resort to USSR-based systems. Through the Late 1980s.
1-6
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.