Documents / FOIA release
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
“The Advance”37 pages
Top which assumes that all submarines carry torpedoes 53 centimeters in diameter (7.8 meters long). DIA believes that two 40-cm torpedoes (4.5 m long) probably could be substituted for each of up to six of the longer torpedos in most classes, thereby substantially increasing wartime torpedo loads. (II, 147) j. Role of the Backfire Bomber. CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise participation of the Backfire, as well as Soviet statements concerning this aircraft, point to peripheral strike as its primary mission. DIA, Army, and Air Force estimate that the Backfire is a long-range bomber with the capability to strike US targets on unrefueled range and radius missions. They agree that it will have significant peripheral missions but note that the Soviets have the option to use the Backfire's intercontinental capabilities. Thus, in their view, the Backfire poses a significant threat to the contiguous United States as well as to areas on the Soviet periphery. The reader is referred to NIE 11-3/8-78 for information on performance data. (II, 178-179) k. Capabilities of Soviet Motor Transport in Wartime. CIA and State believe that the peacetime shortage of cargo vehicles in Category II and III divisions and in army- and front-level motor transport units and the heavy reliance in wartime on mobilized civilian trucks and reservist drivers point to potential weaknesses in the wartime logistic system, particularly in the early stages of a conflict. DIA and Army believe that the Estimate understates the capability of wartime Soviet motor transport. In support of this position they point out that the mobilization system provides for filling out lower category units with vehicles and drivers for war, that civilian trucks are often identical to those in military service, that Soviet vehicles designated for mobilization are inspected by military teams, that reservist drivers would be performing duties related to their civilian occupation, and that the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany already has a lift capability that exceeds its requirements. (II, 220-221) 1. Warsaw Pact Personnel Replacement System in Wartime. CIA, State, and NSA judge that unit replacement is the Warsaw Pact's preferred system for replacing combat personnel. DIA and Army believe that the Pact would use both an individual and a unit replacement system and that the system used in a particular case would depend upon the situation. They further believe that individual replacement would be used primarily in cases of steady, attrition-type losses, while unit replacement would be used primarily in cases of large, sudden losses. (II, 231-232) in. Pact Initiation of War From a Two-Front Posture After Four Days of Preparation. All agencies agree that, because four days would allow only minimal preparations, which would entail serious risks, the 19 Top t~
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.