Documents / FOIA release

Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
Top
which assumes that all submarines carry torpedoes 53 centimeters in
diameter (7.8 meters long). DIA believes that two 40-cm torpedoes (4.5
m long) probably could be substituted for each of up to six of the longer
torpedos in most classes, thereby substantially increasing wartime
torpedo loads. (II, 147)
j. Role of the Backfire Bomber. CIA, State, NSA, and Navy
estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns,
training programs, and exercise participation of the Backfire, as well as
Soviet statements concerning this aircraft, point to peripheral strike as
its primary mission. DIA, Army, and Air Force estimate that the
Backfire is a long-range bomber with the capability to strike US targets
on unrefueled range and radius missions. They agree that it will have
significant peripheral missions but note that the Soviets have the option
to use the Backfire's intercontinental capabilities. Thus, in their view,
the Backfire poses a significant threat to the contiguous United States as
well as to areas on the Soviet periphery. The reader is referred to NIE
11-3/8-78 for information on performance data. (II, 178-179)
k. Capabilities of Soviet Motor Transport in Wartime. CIA and
State believe that the peacetime shortage of cargo vehicles in Category
II and III divisions and in army- and front-level motor transport units
and the heavy reliance in wartime on mobilized civilian trucks and
reservist drivers point to potential weaknesses in the wartime logistic
system, particularly in the early stages of a conflict. DIA and Army
believe that the Estimate understates the capability of wartime Soviet
motor transport. In support of this position they point out that the
mobilization system provides for filling out lower category units with
vehicles and drivers for war, that civilian trucks are often identical to
those in military service, that Soviet vehicles designated for mobilization
are inspected by military teams, that reservist drivers would be
performing duties related to their civilian occupation, and that the
Group of Soviet Forces in Germany already has a lift capability that
exceeds its requirements. (II, 220-221)
1. Warsaw Pact Personnel Replacement System in Wartime.
CIA, State, and NSA judge that unit replacement is the Warsaw Pact's
preferred system for replacing combat personnel. DIA and Army
believe that the Pact would use both an individual and a unit
replacement system and that the system used in a particular case would
depend upon the situation. They further believe that individual
replacement would be used primarily in cases of steady, attrition-type
losses, while unit replacement would be used primarily in cases of large,
sudden losses. (II, 231-232)
in. Pact Initiation of War From a Two-Front Posture After Four
Days of Preparation. All agencies agree that, because four days would
allow only minimal preparations, which would entail serious risks, the
19
Top t~

Not linked to a story yet.

About this file

FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.