Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

(G-I-UK) gap probably would be designated a Maritime TVD, and
would include the Northern Fleet. The forces of the Baltic and Black
Sea Combined Fleets initially would be under the control of the
Western and Southwestern TVD headquarters-often called High
Commands by the Soviets. The senior field command would be the
front, an organization which is similar to a NATO army group in size,
level of command, and function and which consists of three to five
ground armies and an air army of 600 aircraft. (III, 7-10)
16. Our consideration of likely Pact operations in the Western TVD
during the initial phase of a conventional war has resulted in the
following key findings:
- Soviet military strategy calls for a massive and rapid ground
offensive into NATO territory in Central Europe to defeat
NATO forces, disrupt mobilization, and seize or destroy ports
and airfields to prevent reinforcement. (IV, 7)
- Except in extraordinarily urgent circumstances, the Pact would
prefer to prepare at least a three-front force before initiating
hostilities in Central Europe. We believe the Pact would begin to
organize at least five fronts for use in Central Europe from the
time of the decision to go to full readiness. There is virtually no
chance the Soviets would attack from a standing start.' (IV, 10-
22)
- Pact planners regard early attainment of air superiority and
destruction of much of NATO's tactical nuclear forces to be
critical to the Pact's chances for victory in the theater. The Pact
plans to achieve these objectives by conducting a large-scale,
theaterwide conventional air offensive during the first several
days of hostilities. (IV, 43-85)
- The broad objectives of Pact naval operations in the Baltic would
be to gain complete control of the Baltic Sea and access to the
North Sea to sever NATO's lines of communication in the North
Sea, and deprive NATO of potential launch areas for carrier
strikes against Pact air and ground, forces in the Central Region.
Failure to obtain air superiority and sea control probably would
force the Pact to reconsider its planned amphibious operations in
the western Baltic. (IV, 86-111)
17. As for operations in the Southwestern TVD, our conclusions are
as follows:
- The Pact would confine its initial ground operations to the
Turkish Straits area, Austria, and possibly eastern Turkey. In
' NIE 4-1-78, Warsaw Pact Capabilities for Going to War in Europe: Implications for NATO Warning
of War, provides the detailed rationale for these conclusions.
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