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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979
Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
“The Advance”37 pages
- p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power
Arena. We proceed…
- p. 25 …We
foresee no development over the next several years which would
appreciably alter the basic Pact…
- p. 26 …advances
and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a
modest decline in the…
- p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC
interdiction in advance of a…
- p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
- p. 40 …permit the high rates of
appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
- p. 46 …The holders
sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
- p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick
difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
- p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
- p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to
units. The Soviets believe that a…
- p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in
irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
- p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
- p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
- p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning
but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
- p. 108 …the ability to sustain
the momentum of an advance is determined not only
by the availability…
- p. 112 Top e
ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
- p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced
notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin-
ning of…
- p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con-
man…
- p. 126 …advance, Pact
planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
- p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis
up…
- p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using
advance or exploitation along…
- p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to
Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
- p. 147 …surface ships into the
important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
- p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus.
attack…
- p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
- p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea
these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
- p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the
several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
- p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
- p. 172 …The changes will improve
radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
- p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
- p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers.
for these…
- p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans-
survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
- p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable
units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
- p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
- p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced
82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
- p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic
ture. The VAKSS…
- p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that
advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
o t
'Table B-5
Selected Soviel Surface Combatants and Carriers by Fleet Area a
January 1979
Northern Baltic Black Sea b Pacific Total
Aircraft Carriers
Kiev CVSG 1 - 2
Helicopter Ships
Moskva CIG - - 2 -- 2
Missile Cruisers
Kynda CG ............ 2 2 4
Kresta-I CC . 3- - 4
Kresta-I CG .............................. 6 1 - 3 10
Kara CG 6 6
Sverdlov CG .......-- - 1
Total .. ......... ................. 9 1 9 6 25
Cruisers
Chapayev CL - 1 - -- 1
Sverdlov CL 2 2 2 3 9
Total .... 2 3 2 3 10
Missile Destroyers
Kanin DDG 3 1 - 3 7
Kashin DDG - 1 9 4 14
Mod Kashin DDG 2 1 2 - 5
Kotlin DDG 1 1 3 2 7
Kildin DDG -- -
Total 6 4 14 10 34
Destroyers
Kotlin/Mod Kotlin DD. 3 2 3 6 14
Skoryy/Mod Skoryy DD 3 4 7 5 .19
Mod Kildin DD ... ......... ......... ]2 3
total ... ........................ ...... 6 7 12 11 36
Missile Frigates
Krivak 1/11 F G 5 11 3 5 24
Total . 5 11 3 5 - 24
Frigates
Kola FF .- - 1 - 1
Mirka FFL - 14 6 - 20
Petya-l FFL 3 2 3 3 11
Pctya-II FFL 1 - 5 11 27
Mod Petya-l FFL .......... ............ 3 1 1 3 - 8
liga FF 8.................................. 8 5 8 11 32
Koni FF - t - 2
Grisha FFL/WFFL .5 14 9 38
Total 40 23 39 37 139
Total Principal Surface Combatants 69 49 82 72 272
Does not include ships in reserve status but does include ships undergoing short- or long-term overhaul or conversion and on sea trials.
t Includes one Kola and two Rigas assigned to the Caspian Sea Flotilla.
Expected to transfer to Pacific Fleet.
B-10
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.