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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

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“US Navy”42 pages

  • p. 11 …Forces in the Moscow, volga, Ural, and Turkestan Military Districts could be used against NATO or…
  • p. 27 …initiate such use, although the possibility cannot be entirely excluded. DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air…
  • p. 28 …DIA and Navy estimate that six to 10 reserve submarines could be brought to operational status…
  • p. 29 …CIA, State, NSA, and Navy estimate that the performance characteristics, deployment patterns, training programs, and exercise…
  • p. 30 …DIA, NSA, Army, Navy, and Air Force hold that the Soviets might choose to attack with…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 56 Aviation (VTA) were used simultaneously, only one increasing amount of complex equiprnent entering the fully equipped…
  • p. 70 …but Aeroflot's 160 AN-12s could be used to lift heavy During peacetime, these Cubs…
  • p. 79 designed primarily for use against large-area targets, and speeds and maximum ranges of from 80…
  • p. 82 …The Pact navies must seek out Bear D aircraft. The Kiev can also receive targeting Western…
  • p. 84 …The Pact countries can concentrate ASW forces and use Pact navies maintain the bulk of their…
  • p. 85 …NATO placed on resources by the Soviet Navy's other mis- decision not to deploy carrier…
  • p. 87 …Thus the Pact would German Navies are capable of transporting less than probably commit few bombers…
  • p. 88 …As of 1975, however, weapons are also carried by many of the Soviet Navy's only…
  • p. 90 …that the expanded use of Frontal Aviation is regarded as only a partial solution to the…
  • p. 92 …submarines would be likely to be used to strike targets in NATO Europe, and the 150…
  • p. 96 …long-range bomber with the capability to strike US From Liepaja, G-II class submarines fitted…
  • p. 100 …the Directorof Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy. The longer range and radius values in the…
  • p. 113 …Aboard ship the Soviets currently use a scheduled inspection 249. The Soviet Navy has the capability…
  • p. 114 …In addition, the Navy has the option of using merchant communications circuits for command and control…
  • p. 115 …In addition, the Soviet Navy could station an there, railroads and poor-quality highways extend to…
  • p. 122 …Some common computer programs are being used for logistics and battle management sup- 13. In wartime…
  • p. 145 Top Table IV-4 Warsaw Pact General Purpose Naval Forces Estimated To Be Available for Use…
  • p. 146 …German some extent by a shuttle using conventional landing Navies, plus mobilized merchant ships. Assault forces…
  • p. 147 …If the amphibious assaults sary to use far larger forces to escort convoys than were canceled…
  • p. 148 …Eastern Europe and the USSR by the US 6th sweeping NATO's mines or of successfully…
  • p. 152 …follow with strikes using air-to-surface missiles (ASMs),- The Bulgarian and Romanian Navies. Does not…
  • p. 154 …Many have air defense missiles which can be used in an antiship 143. Some believe " that…
  • p. 156 …Soviet Northern Fleet would be used to available LRA and Navy bombers. But we do not…
  • p. 158 …forces were optimized for maximum D-day impact, however, the Soviet Navy would give NATO early…
  • p. 159 …They probably Missile Cruisers 6 would attempt to use these submarines to intercept Cruisers ... 1 Missile…
  • p. 164 …mansk area can be covered by the long-range cruise missiles of the Soviet Navy's…
  • p. 165 …and conventionally armed area air defense against US and UK attacking aircraft missiles, thereby reducing the…
  • p. 168 …the Soviets would use aircraft mainly in battlefield strikes in close proximity to Pact forces, presumably…
  • p. 176 …This aircraft, which is optimized for short-haul Soviet Navy will produce a force with improved…
  • p. 177 …titanium hulls are used, the operational depth limit could reach about 600 meters. According to one…
  • p. 179 …Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the…
  • p. 180 …The Soviet Navy needs a long-range SAM mid-1980s. for defense beyond 20 nm, as…
  • p. 186 …Nonetheless, the would view the presence of US carriers operating in Soviets clearly regard the US…
  • p. 187 …The Soviet Navy maintains a small force in the to Middle Eastern oil were to become…
  • p. 188 …Cuban military contribution in support of Navy also uses port facilities in Benin and Angola but…
  • p. 200 …T s copy is for the iormation and use of the recipient and of persons under…
Top Secret RUFF UMBRA
Table B-2
Disposition of Warsaw Pact Tactical Air Forces'
January 1979
Fighters Fighter Bombers/LightBombers Aircraft for Reconnisance/ElectronieWarfare Totalb
East
MlC-23 MIG-21 MIG-17 fMIC-19MIG tIG-21 MIG-17 MlG-15- SU-17 SU-7 SU-24 YAK-28 M!G-2S MIG-21 M[C-I5 IL-28 YAK-26 L-39 L-29 IL-14 IL-20 AN-30 Sovie: European Total
Aircraft Opposite NATO Central Region
East Earooean
Fast r ay ............ I I5 - 10T- -S- - - - - - 49 49
P-land . . .. .30 30 - 3 35 15 - - - 4 - - - 454 464
Czechosiovakia .... ... 125 - - 45 - S0 - 75 - - - 10 30 0 - - - 374 374
Total East European ....... 225 tO - 45 230 50 30 105 - - - 80 35 15 - 10 30 15 - - - 337 8S7
Societ
CSFG(EastCrermany) .. . . . 150 5 - - 90 45 - - 90 45 - - 15 5 - - 40 - - - 2 - 767 - 767
NCF (Poland) ....... 45 90 - - 40 45 - - 45 - - - 15 10 - - 10 - - - - - 305 - 305
-CCF(Czhoslovakia. 45 45 - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- --- -- --- 105 - Is
BalticMli................................... . . 45 -45 - - - 45 - - - - 70 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - -- - 270 - 270
BelorussianMD ............. ................ . 90 45 - - - 45 - - - 45 35 - 15 i5 - -- - - - - -- - 20 - 290
Carpathian MD .. ........ .... . ..... .. . 90 45 - - 45 - - - 45 - 1D - 10 15 - - 15 - - - - - 370 - 370
Total Soviet ... . ... .... .... .. 495 495 - - 180 150 - - 180 90 210 30 55 105 - - 65 - - - 2 - 2.107 - 2, 07
Total oposite Central Region ... 495 720 10 - 184 225 230 50 210 195 210 30 55 185 35 15 85 10 30 IS 2 - 2.107 887 2.994
Aircraft on NATO's Flanks
East Eluroean
Huncary.. .... ....... .. ...................... ... - - - - - - -
Bulgaria . . . ......... i70 I - 65 - - - - - - 10 25 - - - - - - I - 178 178
Romania.. . ...... - - - - - - 25 60 - - - - - 20 - - - - - l08 108
Total East European .. . . .... 7 20 25 10 15 - 90 60 - - - - - 10 25 20 - - - - - 4 - 256 286
' Societ
SGF (Hungar ........ 45 90 - - - - - - 45 - - 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - - - 245 - 245
Odessa MD ...... . 90 45 - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 15 - - 2 - - - - - - - 230 - 230
Kiev MD .................................................. - 45 - - - - - - - - - - - ---- 45 - 45
TranscaucaosusMD ........................ . . 90 45 - - - - - - 15 - 35 - 10 30 - - 15 - - - 1 - 271 - 271
LeningradMD ....... - -- - - 45 - - - 45 -. -- - 15- - 2 - 122 - 122
TotalSoviet.. . . . . .......... 225 225 - - 90 - - - 135 - 35 30 40 75 - -- 5 - - - 3 - 913 - 913
Total on NATO Flanks . . . . 232 245 25 10 105 - 90 60 135 - 35 30 40 85 25 20 55 - - - 3 4 913 286 1,199
Other Soviet Aircraft
In the Eastern USSR and Afongolia
Soviet ForcesinMongolia..... 45 45 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - -- ISO - 1S0
Central Asian MD ...... - 0 - - 15 80 -- - -- - --- 30 10 30 - - - - - 2 - 277 - 277
Transbarkal MD............................. .. ........ 45 45 - - 45 - - - 135 - 35 - - 15 15 - - 15 - -- - -- - - 350 - 350
Far East MD . .. ..................... _........ 90 45 - - 45 45 - - 90 - 35 - 15 50 - 20 20 - - - 2 - 457 - 457
Total in EasternUSS and Mongofa ... 15 225 - - 105 170 - - 0 - 70 30 40 95 - 20 55 - - - 4 - 1,264 - 1.264
Elsewhere
MoscowMfD . ....... 45 45 - - - - - - 45 - - - 15 - - - 15 ~--- - 165 - 165
Turkestan D .......- 45 - - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 -- 15 - - - -- -- 120 - 120
Total in General Reserve .......................... 45 90 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - 15 15 - - 30 - - - - - 255 - 265
Total Elsewhere ......................................... 225 315 - - 105 215 - - 315 - 70 30 55 110 - 20 O5 - - - 4 - 1,549 -- 1.-49
Total Warsaw Pact...... ....... _.......... 952 1.20 35 10 394 440 320 110 660 195 315 90 150 300 60 55 225 10 30 18 9 4 4,569 1.173 5,742
Of which:
Soviet . ................ ...... ........ . . 945 1,35 - - 375 395 - - 6O 90 035 90 150 290 - 20 225 - - - 9 - 4569 - 4,5
East European ...... .. ..... ....... 0.245 35 15 1 45 320 110 30 105 - - - 90 60 35 - - 10 30 18 - 4 - 1.173 1,1
a Includesall combataircraft (excepttrainers)assignedto what the Pactcalls frontal aviation,or air forcesfor the supportof fronts.It doesnot include b All figures in this table representthe numberof operationallyavailabe (OA) aircraftthatare assignedto active combat units of the W1arsawPact tact
ome2.600 Sovietand1,200 East Europeanlfihteraircraftthat aresubordinateto the nationalair defensecommandswith the primarymissionof strategic air air forces.In mostunits this would includea few aircraftabovethe normalunit caouimeot (UE). The figuresdo not include some900 conbat-capable trair
defense over the territories of the Warsaw Pacto ntries In an emergency,limitednumbersof theseaircraft-particularly EastEuropean-mightbe assisned that are in Pact tacticalair units or some 2.500 aircraft assigned to Pact (mainly Sovieti operational conversionuni andpilot trainingschools.Theseair
tacticalair defensemissions.Aircraft modelsof the Sovietstrategic air defene forces (PVO Strany),howvror, aredifferentfrom thoseof the tacticalair forces robably could serve as maintenance and attrition replacements during hostilities. The table does not include aircraft in storage.
and for the mostpart would not constitutea suitable replacement poolwithoutsccial loistic arrangements. SECRET
B-5
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.