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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

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“The Advance”37 pages

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
Top Secret RUFF UMBRA
Table B-2
Disposition of Warsaw Pact Tactical Air Forces'
January 1979
Fighters Fighter Bombers/LightBombers Aircraft for Reconnisance/ElectronieWarfare Totalb
East
MlC-23 MIG-21 MIG-17 fMIC-19MIG tIG-21 MIG-17 MlG-15- SU-17 SU-7 SU-24 YAK-28 M!G-2S MIG-21 M[C-I5 IL-28 YAK-26 L-39 L-29 IL-14 IL-20 AN-30 Sovie: European Total
Aircraft Opposite NATO Central Region
East Earooean
Fast r ay ............ I I5 - 10T- -S- - - - - - 49 49
P-land . . .. .30 30 - 3 35 15 - - - 4 - - - 454 464
Czechosiovakia .... ... 125 - - 45 - S0 - 75 - - - 10 30 0 - - - 374 374
Total East European ....... 225 tO - 45 230 50 30 105 - - - 80 35 15 - 10 30 15 - - - 337 8S7
Societ
CSFG(EastCrermany) .. . . . 150 5 - - 90 45 - - 90 45 - - 15 5 - - 40 - - - 2 - 767 - 767
NCF (Poland) ....... 45 90 - - 40 45 - - 45 - - - 15 10 - - 10 - - - - - 305 - 305
-CCF(Czhoslovakia. 45 45 - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- --- -- --- 105 - Is
BalticMli................................... . . 45 -45 - - - 45 - - - - 70 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - -- - 270 - 270
BelorussianMD ............. ................ . 90 45 - - - 45 - - - 45 35 - 15 i5 - -- - - - - -- - 20 - 290
Carpathian MD .. ........ .... . ..... .. . 90 45 - - 45 - - - 45 - 1D - 10 15 - - 15 - - - - - 370 - 370
Total Soviet ... . ... .... .... .. 495 495 - - 180 150 - - 180 90 210 30 55 105 - - 65 - - - 2 - 2.107 - 2, 07
Total oposite Central Region ... 495 720 10 - 184 225 230 50 210 195 210 30 55 185 35 15 85 10 30 IS 2 - 2.107 887 2.994
Aircraft on NATO's Flanks
East Eluroean
Huncary.. .... ....... .. ...................... ... - - - - - - -
Bulgaria . . . ......... i70 I - 65 - - - - - - 10 25 - - - - - - I - 178 178
Romania.. . ...... - - - - - - 25 60 - - - - - 20 - - - - - l08 108
Total East European .. . . .... 7 20 25 10 15 - 90 60 - - - - - 10 25 20 - - - - - 4 - 256 286
' Societ
SGF (Hungar ........ 45 90 - - - - - - 45 - - 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - - - 245 - 245
Odessa MD ...... . 90 45 - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 15 - - 2 - - - - - - - 230 - 230
Kiev MD .................................................. - 45 - - - - - - - - - - - ---- 45 - 45
TranscaucaosusMD ........................ . . 90 45 - - - - - - 15 - 35 - 10 30 - - 15 - - - 1 - 271 - 271
LeningradMD ....... - -- - - 45 - - - 45 -. -- - 15- - 2 - 122 - 122
TotalSoviet.. . . . . .......... 225 225 - - 90 - - - 135 - 35 30 40 75 - -- 5 - - - 3 - 913 - 913
Total on NATO Flanks . . . . 232 245 25 10 105 - 90 60 135 - 35 30 40 85 25 20 55 - - - 3 4 913 286 1,199
Other Soviet Aircraft
In the Eastern USSR and Afongolia
Soviet ForcesinMongolia..... 45 45 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - -- ISO - 1S0
Central Asian MD ...... - 0 - - 15 80 -- - -- - --- 30 10 30 - - - - - 2 - 277 - 277
Transbarkal MD............................. .. ........ 45 45 - - 45 - - - 135 - 35 - - 15 15 - - 15 - -- - -- - - 350 - 350
Far East MD . .. ..................... _........ 90 45 - - 45 45 - - 90 - 35 - 15 50 - 20 20 - - - 2 - 457 - 457
Total in EasternUSS and Mongofa ... 15 225 - - 105 170 - - 0 - 70 30 40 95 - 20 55 - - - 4 - 1,264 - 1.264
Elsewhere
MoscowMfD . ....... 45 45 - - - - - - 45 - - - 15 - - - 15 ~--- - 165 - 165
Turkestan D .......- 45 - - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 -- 15 - - - -- -- 120 - 120
Total in General Reserve .......................... 45 90 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - 15 15 - - 30 - - - - - 255 - 265
Total Elsewhere ......................................... 225 315 - - 105 215 - - 315 - 70 30 55 110 - 20 O5 - - - 4 - 1,549 -- 1.-49
Total Warsaw Pact...... ....... _.......... 952 1.20 35 10 394 440 320 110 660 195 315 90 150 300 60 55 225 10 30 18 9 4 4,569 1.173 5,742
Of which:
Soviet . ................ ...... ........ . . 945 1,35 - - 375 395 - - 6O 90 035 90 150 290 - 20 225 - - - 9 - 4569 - 4,5
East European ...... .. ..... ....... 0.245 35 15 1 45 320 110 30 105 - - - 90 60 35 - - 10 30 18 - 4 - 1.173 1,1
a Includesall combataircraft (excepttrainers)assignedto what the Pactcalls frontal aviation,or air forcesfor the supportof fronts.It doesnot include b All figures in this table representthe numberof operationallyavailabe (OA) aircraftthatare assignedto active combat units of the W1arsawPact tact
ome2.600 Sovietand1,200 East Europeanlfihteraircraftthat aresubordinateto the nationalair defensecommandswith the primarymissionof strategic air air forces.In mostunits this would includea few aircraftabovethe normalunit caouimeot (UE). The figuresdo not include some900 conbat-capable trair
defense over the territories of the Warsaw Pacto ntries In an emergency,limitednumbersof theseaircraft-particularly EastEuropean-mightbe assisned that are in Pact tacticalair units or some 2.500 aircraft assigned to Pact (mainly Sovieti operational conversionuni andpilot trainingschools.Theseair
tacticalair defensemissions.Aircraft modelsof the Sovietstrategic air defene forces (PVO Strany),howvror, aredifferentfrom thoseof the tacticalair forces robably could serve as maintenance and attrition replacements during hostilities. The table does not include aircraft in storage.
and for the mostpart would not constitutea suitable replacement poolwithoutsccial loistic arrangements. SECRET
B-5
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