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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

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“Sea”60+ pages

  • p. 8 …I1-41 Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO's Sea Lines of Communication 11-41…
  • p. 9 …IV-25 Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea IV-27 Initial Air and Naval Operations…
  • p. 16 …European NATO and the Warsaw Pact Figure 1 ,'- - "''i 'Fr,~'""' NNA TO countries Benes Sea Warsaw…
  • p. 20 …An area in the Norwegian Sea north of the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom 10
  • p. 21 …The forces of the Baltic and Black Sea Combined Fleets initially would be under the control…
  • p. 22 …To assist in the achievement of air and sea superiority and to protect the amphibious force…
  • p. 23 …The Soviets would attempt to neutralize Western SSBNs near their bases and in the Norwegian Sea…
  • p. 28 …Extent, Emphasis, and Timing of the Soviet Interdiction Campaign Against NATO Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC…
  • p. 30 …Likely Effectiveness of Pact Operations To Achieve Air Superiority and Sea Control in the Baltic Sea…
  • p. 31 …Likelihood of Soviet Use of Nuclear Weapons at Sea Before Their Use on Land. Navy judges…
  • p. 42 …At sea the establishment and maintenance of 36. The Soviets recognize the formidable strength Soviet naval…
  • p. 50 …not include airborne divisions or the Polish Sea Landing division-level air defense weapons. The SA…
  • p. 54 …7 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP NorweqianA'Motr iisio rifle Norwegian divisionCategory I Sea Category II Category…
  • p. 60 Peacetime Location of Warsaw Pact Air Forces Opposite NATO Figure 1-8 Barents Sea Soviet NSWP…
  • p. 71 …For operations in the Mediterranean Sea, January 1979 the Black Sea Fleet furnishes most of the…
  • p. 72 …PO A ; re -t { - Black Sea Fleet ROMANI A -UGM (Dsevastopo - BUGRAFleet Caspian headquarters Black Sea…
  • p. 73 …If the Soviets were not concerned with covert deployment of their ships to sea, they could…
  • p. 74 …number of ships able to put to sea on short have some 30 principal surface combatants…
  • p. 75 …The wartime missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea…
  • p. 77 lop et Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21a Maximum system Payload (kg) Speed…
  • p. 78 Nominal Flight Profiles of Selected Soviet Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles Figure II-21b Altitude (m) 18…
  • p. 79 …but can into the Baltic and Black Sea Fleet air forces to date remain submerged for…
  • p. 80 …In the antiship role, wartime operational con- against ships at sea. The Fitters, however, all of…
  • p. 83 …Pact fleets in the Baltic and Black Seas. IL-38 May TU-142 Bear F bottom…
  • p. 84 …Capabilities for Exercising Sea Denial in NATO Sea Lines of Communication 142. In wartime, the Soviets…
  • p. 85 …of a conflict when NATO Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and much of the Norwegian would…
  • p. 86 Table II-9 Northern Fleet submarine bases and the North Atlantic sea lanes. They point out…
  • p. 87 …In the Black Sea area, the combined Nuclear weapons allocations that we have noted strength of…
  • p. 95 …with either land- or sea-based missile forces. The LRA H-II SSBN . 4/12 intermediate…
  • p. 96 …This latest Soviet bomber has a combat particularly naval task forces at sea During exercises, radius…
  • p. 100 …Sea-Level Thrust-kN (lb r) 120 (27,000) 105 (23,500) Installed Maximum Afterburner Sea…
  • p. 102 …bulk-fill artillery and mor- ships at sea, points of embarkation, forward storage tar shells; multiple…
  • p. 112 …A shortage of technicians would oilers from their home fleets could operate at sea for probably…
  • p. 113 …The Soviets to sustain operations at sea. rarely have been observed practicing this, however, and instead…
  • p. 114 …For naval and civilian, probably would seek to minimize example, emergency action drills at sea are…
  • p. 115 …developed to permit the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets to foreseeable future, of marginal value be…
  • p. 118 …Pact operations in the western and sea areas, including islands (archipelagos), Baltic Sea also would be…
  • p. 121 …Barents Sea Maritime / T VD 49 shr rri s / Norwegian ICELAND '1 I ' Sea T''f…
  • p. 122 …The Combined Black Sea Fleet would be formed from the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and the…
  • p. 127 …t ,,D ES MA ! R K y 7 ~ ~ §.~.Baltic 50ea North Sea -? - ASNDT1 4... . NETHERLANDS 1…
  • p. 131 …units and with additional naval units at sea-would choose to attack with the two-front…
  • p. 139 …4 NATO airbases Balte sea- HAWK missile belt - Penetration corridor - - North Sea i/ POLAND - West Berlin…
  • p. 144 …This buffer for Pact territory, and defend Pact sea lines of would require effective coordination of…
  • p. 145 …b The soviet Baltic Sea Fleet. Not included are minor surface combatants or 10 reserve ships…
  • p. 146 …The Pact clearly is aware that the success of its infantry regiment, the Polish sea landing…
  • p. 147 …Pact planners also of ships assigned to protect Baltic sea lines would be recognize that the…
  • p. 148 …these air naval forces from the Black Sea. It also would operations, and the speed with…
  • p. 149 …southwestern Brigrades .........-- 9e - - littoral of the Black Sea. Soviet surface naval forces Soviet divisions in Hungary…
  • p. 150 …and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there into IV-26
  • p. 151 …Pact air and sea superiority in the Black Sea would be particularly critical to the Pact…
  • p. 152 …the initialattacks by Soviet ships and submarines of bThe Black Sea Fleet and the Mediterranean Squadron…
  • p. 153 …The Soviets no doubt realize, however, that the Sea Fleet, although reinforcement from the Northern advantages…
  • p. 154 …be reinforced cally available in the Black Sea Fleet, seven to before the outbreak of hostilities…
  • p. 155 -T _P.3_re4' few, if any, large combatants from the Black Sea the Straits as…
  • p. 156 …See paragraphs 102 and forces in the Norwegian Sea. Initially, we could expect 103 and table…
  • p. 157 …Sealifted ground forces could gian Sea. If the Soviets chose to avoid Norwegian- reinforce airborne and…
  • p. 158 …The Soviets have about 130 operational cruise Barents Seas and their approaches apparently consist missile and…
  • p. 159 …submarines normally deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. 169. Another view "1holds that, in a typical initial…
  • p. 160 …1 Sea control N eMurmansk _ G+UK "r' Gap ''-1 (5Sea denial, ?" Holy locit tRosyth Moscow…
  • p. 161 …Once hostilities cover the approaches to the Norwegian Sea. Our began, however, these forces probably would…
Top Secret RUFF UMBRA
Table B-2
Disposition of Warsaw Pact Tactical Air Forces'
January 1979
Fighters Fighter Bombers/LightBombers Aircraft for Reconnisance/ElectronieWarfare Totalb
East
MlC-23 MIG-21 MIG-17 fMIC-19MIG tIG-21 MIG-17 MlG-15- SU-17 SU-7 SU-24 YAK-28 M!G-2S MIG-21 M[C-I5 IL-28 YAK-26 L-39 L-29 IL-14 IL-20 AN-30 Sovie: European Total
Aircraft Opposite NATO Central Region
East Earooean
Fast r ay ............ I I5 - 10T- -S- - - - - - 49 49
P-land . . .. .30 30 - 3 35 15 - - - 4 - - - 454 464
Czechosiovakia .... ... 125 - - 45 - S0 - 75 - - - 10 30 0 - - - 374 374
Total East European ....... 225 tO - 45 230 50 30 105 - - - 80 35 15 - 10 30 15 - - - 337 8S7
Societ
CSFG(EastCrermany) .. . . . 150 5 - - 90 45 - - 90 45 - - 15 5 - - 40 - - - 2 - 767 - 767
NCF (Poland) ....... 45 90 - - 40 45 - - 45 - - - 15 10 - - 10 - - - - - 305 - 305
-CCF(Czhoslovakia. 45 45 - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- --- -- --- 105 - Is
BalticMli................................... . . 45 -45 - - - 45 - - - - 70 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - -- - 270 - 270
BelorussianMD ............. ................ . 90 45 - - - 45 - - - 45 35 - 15 i5 - -- - - - - -- - 20 - 290
Carpathian MD .. ........ .... . ..... .. . 90 45 - - 45 - - - 45 - 1D - 10 15 - - 15 - - - - - 370 - 370
Total Soviet ... . ... .... .... .. 495 495 - - 180 150 - - 180 90 210 30 55 105 - - 65 - - - 2 - 2.107 - 2, 07
Total oposite Central Region ... 495 720 10 - 184 225 230 50 210 195 210 30 55 185 35 15 85 10 30 IS 2 - 2.107 887 2.994
Aircraft on NATO's Flanks
East Eluroean
Huncary.. .... ....... .. ...................... ... - - - - - - -
Bulgaria . . . ......... i70 I - 65 - - - - - - 10 25 - - - - - - I - 178 178
Romania.. . ...... - - - - - - 25 60 - - - - - 20 - - - - - l08 108
Total East European .. . . .... 7 20 25 10 15 - 90 60 - - - - - 10 25 20 - - - - - 4 - 256 286
' Societ
SGF (Hungar ........ 45 90 - - - - - - 45 - - 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - - - 245 - 245
Odessa MD ...... . 90 45 - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 15 - - 2 - - - - - - - 230 - 230
Kiev MD .................................................. - 45 - - - - - - - - - - - ---- 45 - 45
TranscaucaosusMD ........................ . . 90 45 - - - - - - 15 - 35 - 10 30 - - 15 - - - 1 - 271 - 271
LeningradMD ....... - -- - - 45 - - - 45 -. -- - 15- - 2 - 122 - 122
TotalSoviet.. . . . . .......... 225 225 - - 90 - - - 135 - 35 30 40 75 - -- 5 - - - 3 - 913 - 913
Total on NATO Flanks . . . . 232 245 25 10 105 - 90 60 135 - 35 30 40 85 25 20 55 - - - 3 4 913 286 1,199
Other Soviet Aircraft
In the Eastern USSR and Afongolia
Soviet ForcesinMongolia..... 45 45 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - -- ISO - 1S0
Central Asian MD ...... - 0 - - 15 80 -- - -- - --- 30 10 30 - - - - - 2 - 277 - 277
Transbarkal MD............................. .. ........ 45 45 - - 45 - - - 135 - 35 - - 15 15 - - 15 - -- - -- - - 350 - 350
Far East MD . .. ..................... _........ 90 45 - - 45 45 - - 90 - 35 - 15 50 - 20 20 - - - 2 - 457 - 457
Total in EasternUSS and Mongofa ... 15 225 - - 105 170 - - 0 - 70 30 40 95 - 20 55 - - - 4 - 1,264 - 1.264
Elsewhere
MoscowMfD . ....... 45 45 - - - - - - 45 - - - 15 - - - 15 ~--- - 165 - 165
Turkestan D .......- 45 - - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 -- 15 - - - -- -- 120 - 120
Total in General Reserve .......................... 45 90 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - 15 15 - - 30 - - - - - 255 - 265
Total Elsewhere ......................................... 225 315 - - 105 215 - - 315 - 70 30 55 110 - 20 O5 - - - 4 - 1,549 -- 1.-49
Total Warsaw Pact...... ....... _.......... 952 1.20 35 10 394 440 320 110 660 195 315 90 150 300 60 55 225 10 30 18 9 4 4,569 1.173 5,742
Of which:
Soviet . ................ ...... ........ . . 945 1,35 - - 375 395 - - 6O 90 035 90 150 290 - 20 225 - - - 9 - 4569 - 4,5
East European ...... .. ..... ....... 0.245 35 15 1 45 320 110 30 105 - - - 90 60 35 - - 10 30 18 - 4 - 1.173 1,1
a Includesall combataircraft (excepttrainers)assignedto what the Pactcalls frontal aviation,or air forcesfor the supportof fronts.It doesnot include b All figures in this table representthe numberof operationallyavailabe (OA) aircraftthatare assignedto active combat units of the W1arsawPact tact
ome2.600 Sovietand1,200 East Europeanlfihteraircraftthat aresubordinateto the nationalair defensecommandswith the primarymissionof strategic air air forces.In mostunits this would includea few aircraftabovethe normalunit caouimeot (UE). The figuresdo not include some900 conbat-capable trair
defense over the territories of the Warsaw Pacto ntries In an emergency,limitednumbersof theseaircraft-particularly EastEuropean-mightbe assisned that are in Pact tacticalair units or some 2.500 aircraft assigned to Pact (mainly Sovieti operational conversionuni andpilot trainingschools.Theseair
tacticalair defensemissions.Aircraft modelsof the Sovietstrategic air defene forces (PVO Strany),howvror, aredifferentfrom thoseof the tacticalair forces robably could serve as maintenance and attrition replacements during hostilities. The table does not include aircraft in storage.
and for the mostpart would not constitutea suitable replacement poolwithoutsccial loistic arrangements. SECRET
B-5
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