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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

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“Mission Control”29 pages

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
Top Secret RUFF UMBRA
Table B-2
Disposition of Warsaw Pact Tactical Air Forces'
January 1979
Fighters Fighter Bombers/LightBombers Aircraft for Reconnisance/ElectronieWarfare Totalb
East
MlC-23 MIG-21 MIG-17 fMIC-19MIG tIG-21 MIG-17 MlG-15- SU-17 SU-7 SU-24 YAK-28 M!G-2S MIG-21 M[C-I5 IL-28 YAK-26 L-39 L-29 IL-14 IL-20 AN-30 Sovie: European Total
Aircraft Opposite NATO Central Region
East Earooean
Fast r ay ............ I I5 - 10T- -S- - - - - - 49 49
P-land . . .. .30 30 - 3 35 15 - - - 4 - - - 454 464
Czechosiovakia .... ... 125 - - 45 - S0 - 75 - - - 10 30 0 - - - 374 374
Total East European ....... 225 tO - 45 230 50 30 105 - - - 80 35 15 - 10 30 15 - - - 337 8S7
Societ
CSFG(EastCrermany) .. . . . 150 5 - - 90 45 - - 90 45 - - 15 5 - - 40 - - - 2 - 767 - 767
NCF (Poland) ....... 45 90 - - 40 45 - - 45 - - - 15 10 - - 10 - - - - - 305 - 305
-CCF(Czhoslovakia. 45 45 - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- --- -- --- 105 - Is
BalticMli................................... . . 45 -45 - - - 45 - - - - 70 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - -- - 270 - 270
BelorussianMD ............. ................ . 90 45 - - - 45 - - - 45 35 - 15 i5 - -- - - - - -- - 20 - 290
Carpathian MD .. ........ .... . ..... .. . 90 45 - - 45 - - - 45 - 1D - 10 15 - - 15 - - - - - 370 - 370
Total Soviet ... . ... .... .... .. 495 495 - - 180 150 - - 180 90 210 30 55 105 - - 65 - - - 2 - 2.107 - 2, 07
Total oposite Central Region ... 495 720 10 - 184 225 230 50 210 195 210 30 55 185 35 15 85 10 30 IS 2 - 2.107 887 2.994
Aircraft on NATO's Flanks
East Eluroean
Huncary.. .... ....... .. ...................... ... - - - - - - -
Bulgaria . . . ......... i70 I - 65 - - - - - - 10 25 - - - - - - I - 178 178
Romania.. . ...... - - - - - - 25 60 - - - - - 20 - - - - - l08 108
Total East European .. . . .... 7 20 25 10 15 - 90 60 - - - - - 10 25 20 - - - - - 4 - 256 286
' Societ
SGF (Hungar ........ 45 90 - - - - - - 45 - - 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - - - 245 - 245
Odessa MD ...... . 90 45 - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 15 - - 2 - - - - - - - 230 - 230
Kiev MD .................................................. - 45 - - - - - - - - - - - ---- 45 - 45
TranscaucaosusMD ........................ . . 90 45 - - - - - - 15 - 35 - 10 30 - - 15 - - - 1 - 271 - 271
LeningradMD ....... - -- - - 45 - - - 45 -. -- - 15- - 2 - 122 - 122
TotalSoviet.. . . . . .......... 225 225 - - 90 - - - 135 - 35 30 40 75 - -- 5 - - - 3 - 913 - 913
Total on NATO Flanks . . . . 232 245 25 10 105 - 90 60 135 - 35 30 40 85 25 20 55 - - - 3 4 913 286 1,199
Other Soviet Aircraft
In the Eastern USSR and Afongolia
Soviet ForcesinMongolia..... 45 45 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - -- ISO - 1S0
Central Asian MD ...... - 0 - - 15 80 -- - -- - --- 30 10 30 - - - - - 2 - 277 - 277
Transbarkal MD............................. .. ........ 45 45 - - 45 - - - 135 - 35 - - 15 15 - - 15 - -- - -- - - 350 - 350
Far East MD . .. ..................... _........ 90 45 - - 45 45 - - 90 - 35 - 15 50 - 20 20 - - - 2 - 457 - 457
Total in EasternUSS and Mongofa ... 15 225 - - 105 170 - - 0 - 70 30 40 95 - 20 55 - - - 4 - 1,264 - 1.264
Elsewhere
MoscowMfD . ....... 45 45 - - - - - - 45 - - - 15 - - - 15 ~--- - 165 - 165
Turkestan D .......- 45 - - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 -- 15 - - - -- -- 120 - 120
Total in General Reserve .......................... 45 90 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - 15 15 - - 30 - - - - - 255 - 265
Total Elsewhere ......................................... 225 315 - - 105 215 - - 315 - 70 30 55 110 - 20 O5 - - - 4 - 1,549 -- 1.-49
Total Warsaw Pact...... ....... _.......... 952 1.20 35 10 394 440 320 110 660 195 315 90 150 300 60 55 225 10 30 18 9 4 4,569 1.173 5,742
Of which:
Soviet . ................ ...... ........ . . 945 1,35 - - 375 395 - - 6O 90 035 90 150 290 - 20 225 - - - 9 - 4569 - 4,5
East European ...... .. ..... ....... 0.245 35 15 1 45 320 110 30 105 - - - 90 60 35 - - 10 30 18 - 4 - 1.173 1,1
a Includesall combataircraft (excepttrainers)assignedto what the Pactcalls frontal aviation,or air forcesfor the supportof fronts.It doesnot include b All figures in this table representthe numberof operationallyavailabe (OA) aircraftthatare assignedto active combat units of the W1arsawPact tact
ome2.600 Sovietand1,200 East Europeanlfihteraircraftthat aresubordinateto the nationalair defensecommandswith the primarymissionof strategic air air forces.In mostunits this would includea few aircraftabovethe normalunit caouimeot (UE). The figuresdo not include some900 conbat-capable trair
defense over the territories of the Warsaw Pacto ntries In an emergency,limitednumbersof theseaircraft-particularly EastEuropean-mightbe assisned that are in Pact tacticalair units or some 2.500 aircraft assigned to Pact (mainly Sovieti operational conversionuni andpilot trainingschools.Theseair
tacticalair defensemissions.Aircraft modelsof the Sovietstrategic air defene forces (PVO Strany),howvror, aredifferentfrom thoseof the tacticalair forces robably could serve as maintenance and attrition replacements during hostilities. The table does not include aircraft in storage.
and for the mostpart would not constitutea suitable replacement poolwithoutsccial loistic arrangements. SECRET
B-5
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