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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
Top Secret RUFF UMBRA
Table B-2
Disposition of Warsaw Pact Tactical Air Forces'
January 1979
Fighters Fighter Bombers/LightBombers Aircraft for Reconnisance/ElectronieWarfare Totalb
East
MlC-23 MIG-21 MIG-17 fMIC-19MIG tIG-21 MIG-17 MlG-15- SU-17 SU-7 SU-24 YAK-28 M!G-2S MIG-21 M[C-I5 IL-28 YAK-26 L-39 L-29 IL-14 IL-20 AN-30 Sovie: European Total
Aircraft Opposite NATO Central Region
East Earooean
Fast r ay ............ I I5 - 10T- -S- - - - - - 49 49
P-land . . .. .30 30 - 3 35 15 - - - 4 - - - 454 464
Czechosiovakia .... ... 125 - - 45 - S0 - 75 - - - 10 30 0 - - - 374 374
Total East European ....... 225 tO - 45 230 50 30 105 - - - 80 35 15 - 10 30 15 - - - 337 8S7
Societ
CSFG(EastCrermany) .. . . . 150 5 - - 90 45 - - 90 45 - - 15 5 - - 40 - - - 2 - 767 - 767
NCF (Poland) ....... 45 90 - - 40 45 - - 45 - - - 15 10 - - 10 - - - - - 305 - 305
-CCF(Czhoslovakia. 45 45 - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- --- -- --- 105 - Is
BalticMli................................... . . 45 -45 - - - 45 - - - - 70 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - -- - 270 - 270
BelorussianMD ............. ................ . 90 45 - - - 45 - - - 45 35 - 15 i5 - -- - - - - -- - 20 - 290
Carpathian MD .. ........ .... . ..... .. . 90 45 - - 45 - - - 45 - 1D - 10 15 - - 15 - - - - - 370 - 370
Total Soviet ... . ... .... .... .. 495 495 - - 180 150 - - 180 90 210 30 55 105 - - 65 - - - 2 - 2.107 - 2, 07
Total oposite Central Region ... 495 720 10 - 184 225 230 50 210 195 210 30 55 185 35 15 85 10 30 IS 2 - 2.107 887 2.994
Aircraft on NATO's Flanks
East Eluroean
Huncary.. .... ....... .. ...................... ... - - - - - - -
Bulgaria . . . ......... i70 I - 65 - - - - - - 10 25 - - - - - - I - 178 178
Romania.. . ...... - - - - - - 25 60 - - - - - 20 - - - - - l08 108
Total East European .. . . .... 7 20 25 10 15 - 90 60 - - - - - 10 25 20 - - - - - 4 - 256 286
' Societ
SGF (Hungar ........ 45 90 - - - - - - 45 - - 30 - 15 - - 20 - - - - - 245 - 245
Odessa MD ...... . 90 45 - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 15 - - 2 - - - - - - - 230 - 230
Kiev MD .................................................. - 45 - - - - - - - - - - - ---- 45 - 45
TranscaucaosusMD ........................ . . 90 45 - - - - - - 15 - 35 - 10 30 - - 15 - - - 1 - 271 - 271
LeningradMD ....... - -- - - 45 - - - 45 -. -- - 15- - 2 - 122 - 122
TotalSoviet.. . . . . .......... 225 225 - - 90 - - - 135 - 35 30 40 75 - -- 5 - - - 3 - 913 - 913
Total on NATO Flanks . . . . 232 245 25 10 105 - 90 60 135 - 35 30 40 85 25 20 55 - - - 3 4 913 286 1,199
Other Soviet Aircraft
In the Eastern USSR and Afongolia
Soviet ForcesinMongolia..... 45 45 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - -- ISO - 1S0
Central Asian MD ...... - 0 - - 15 80 -- - -- - --- 30 10 30 - - - - - 2 - 277 - 277
Transbarkal MD............................. .. ........ 45 45 - - 45 - - - 135 - 35 - - 15 15 - - 15 - -- - -- - - 350 - 350
Far East MD . .. ..................... _........ 90 45 - - 45 45 - - 90 - 35 - 15 50 - 20 20 - - - 2 - 457 - 457
Total in EasternUSS and Mongofa ... 15 225 - - 105 170 - - 0 - 70 30 40 95 - 20 55 - - - 4 - 1,264 - 1.264
Elsewhere
MoscowMfD . ....... 45 45 - - - - - - 45 - - - 15 - - - 15 ~--- - 165 - 165
Turkestan D .......- 45 - - - 45 - - - - - - - 15 -- 15 - - - -- -- 120 - 120
Total in General Reserve .......................... 45 90 - - - 45 - - 45 - - - 15 15 - - 30 - - - - - 255 - 265
Total Elsewhere ......................................... 225 315 - - 105 215 - - 315 - 70 30 55 110 - 20 O5 - - - 4 - 1,549 -- 1.-49
Total Warsaw Pact...... ....... _.......... 952 1.20 35 10 394 440 320 110 660 195 315 90 150 300 60 55 225 10 30 18 9 4 4,569 1.173 5,742
Of which:
Soviet . ................ ...... ........ . . 945 1,35 - - 375 395 - - 6O 90 035 90 150 290 - 20 225 - - - 9 - 4569 - 4,5
East European ...... .. ..... ....... 0.245 35 15 1 45 320 110 30 105 - - - 90 60 35 - - 10 30 18 - 4 - 1.173 1,1
a Includesall combataircraft (excepttrainers)assignedto what the Pactcalls frontal aviation,or air forcesfor the supportof fronts.It doesnot include b All figures in this table representthe numberof operationallyavailabe (OA) aircraftthatare assignedto active combat units of the W1arsawPact tact
ome2.600 Sovietand1,200 East Europeanlfihteraircraftthat aresubordinateto the nationalair defensecommandswith the primarymissionof strategic air air forces.In mostunits this would includea few aircraftabovethe normalunit caouimeot (UE). The figuresdo not include some900 conbat-capable trair
defense over the territories of the Warsaw Pacto ntries In an emergency,limitednumbersof theseaircraft-particularly EastEuropean-mightbe assisned that are in Pact tacticalair units or some 2.500 aircraft assigned to Pact (mainly Sovieti operational conversionuni andpilot trainingschools.Theseair
tacticalair defensemissions.Aircraft modelsof the Sovietstrategic air defene forces (PVO Strany),howvror, aredifferentfrom thoseof the tacticalair forces robably could serve as maintenance and attrition replacements during hostilities. The table does not include aircraft in storage.
and for the mostpart would not constitutea suitable replacement poolwithoutsccial loistic arrangements. SECRET
B-5
TCS 2267-79/ft Top Seret

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.