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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
To-p beeroll
Table 1B-1
Disposition of Warsaw Pact Grotmd Forces
January 1979
CategoryI Categov It Catetry III Total
TI) Mil) Ablln Ide TD MDl) Abn de TD MRD Ab, Ide Div Oide
DivisionsOpposite NATO Central Regin
Cast CEuroocan
EastG ........... 2 4 - - - - - - - - - 6 -
P'olaud ........ ...... .... .. 5 3 1 - - 3 - - 2 - - 15. -
Czecoslovai........ 3 4 - 1 2 - - - 10 -
TS F.otalF- Euroean ........ .... 2..... 10 11 1- 4 - - 2 2 - - 31. -
S-.iet
CSFC(CastCermany). . 10 10 20 -
N F P l n) .. .. ...... .. .... .......... 2 - - . - - - - - 2 -
CF(oCzechosslovakhi .. .. .. 2 .2 - - - -. - -- - -- - - 5 -
Ialic MlD ...............-..... . ... - - I - 2 I - - I 4 I - 10 -
iklorssian l ...... ....- - - - I -
Carpatian MD .......... .... - - - - I 2 - .- 2 0 - - 1 -
To l Soviet ................ ....................... 14 14 2 - 3 3 - - 11 II I - 59 -
Total Oprosile CentralRegion ............. ... 24 25 3 - A 7 - - 13 13 1 - 90' -
Divisions on NATO' Fanks
tEast Euroorean
1ungar -_...................... ......... I 2 - - - I - - -- 2 - - 6 -
Iulgaria . ..... . . ... - 6 - 3 I - - - 6 7
Romi ..... .. .- 5 - 2 - 3 - - - - ~ -- 10 2
Tolal ad Euoean..... .................... 3 10 - 8 - 7 -- - 2 - - 22 9.
Soviet
SCF(0ungay). ... . . 2 2 - - - -- - - -- - - - - 4 -
OdessaMD .. . . ...... . - - I - -- I - 6 - - 8 -
Kiev MD .................................. .............. . - - - - 1 - - - 6 4 - - 11 -
North Caucasus MD ...... . .. - - - - I - - - -- 5 - - 6 -
Transeaucas MD .. .... - 1 - - 2 - - - 9 - - 12 -
Leningrad l ... ....... - I 1 - - I - -- - 6 - - 9 -
TotalSoet. .... ....... 2 3 3 - 2 4 - - 6 30 - - 50 -
Iotalon NATOc lanks . ... ............... S 1 3 8 2 1i - I 6 32 - - 72 9
Other Soviet tivisions
I1t the Eastern USSR and Afongolioa
SovietForcesinMongolia....... ..... - - 1 -- - -- - - - -- 3 -
COntralAsiaMl) .. . . .......--.--. 2 - - -- 3 - -- 7 -
Sibi ajnrMD ............................ ................... ... - - - - - . - 4 - - 5 -
Tnr baykal MD ................... ..................... 1 3 - - - 2 - - 1 3 - - 10 -
Far East MD....................... --- 5 - - 1s 6 - - - 10, - - 22' -
Total in Eastern USSR and Mongolia ... ..... 3 10 - - 2 iI - - 1 20 - - 47 -
i tifrewhere
Moscow M D . .... .............. .... .... ......... - - I - 1 I - - -- :2 - - 7 -
Ural Nil ............. ......... ..... - 1 2 - - 3 -
Volga MD . . ......... ........-.---.-.-.--.-.-.-- --- 3 - - 3 -
TurkestanNil) . . . . . - - 1 - - I - - - - - 5 -
Totalse e .......... ....... - - 2 -- 1 2 - - 2 11 - - I8 -
Toal Other SovietlDivisions....................... 3 10 2 - 3 13 - - 3 3I -. - 65 -
Totai Warsaw Pact ............... .............. 32 48 8 8 8 31 - 1 22 76 1 - 227 9
Sioit ....... .. ...... ....... ...... 19 27 3 - 20 - -. 22 7l -.- 1N -
F- sotEuro a . ..... .. ... .... ... 13 21 1 0 - i -- I 2 5 - - 53' 9
Slicudlesa CategoryI Polishsea landing divosi of soce 4,400men which is nol Iiced in categoy ccocums
'This division dcos not colorn to the standardTO&E of a tank divisinn and may be eprcimcenol.
v Five tank brigares andone irainingbrigade, the latter designated for wacime expsiocn to a mtorizld rifle division.
o Peacetime trainig brigade deigoated for waitime eoansion to mltorizel rifle division,
e M ucntain lr e brigades,
f Incde ncediviion which is in the oreof bei unscadel fram a obiht.atio (seennhenecation) division a active o
e includesthree motorizd rifle divisionsof the Fa, Est Mihtaiv Districtwhih. beause of thciic emote tocations in Sakhalinand Kamchatka.areno 1odered to be deoloyed
ociosite China.
8-3
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