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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 24 in NIE 11-4-78, Soviet Goals and Expectations in the Global Power Arena. We proceed…
  • p. 25 …We foresee no development over the next several years which would appreciably alter the basic Pact…
  • p. 26 …advances and ensure that combat potentials are fully realized. We expect a modest decline in the…
  • p. 28 …where the outcome is in serious doubt, the attractiveness of SLOC interdiction in advance of a…
  • p. 37 …qualitative and numerical advances in their forward- 12. Despite the Soviets' having adopted a policy for…
  • p. 40 …permit the high rates of appreciation of the risks and rewards of introducing advance which they…
  • p. 46 …The holders sion system, a more advanced and more powerful of this view are the Director…
  • p. 57 …The Soviets are attempting to provide quick difficulties in recruiting personnel for these programs. advancement and…
  • p. 63 combat capability of these units continues to be and 40 percent of the force is equipped…
  • p. 68 …reconnaissance erated by new, advanced air munitions are justified to units. The Soviets believe that a…
  • p. 69 …The Soviets have made some advances in irnproved infrared seeker, improved motors, and possi- streamlining their…
  • p. 85 …advance of a conflict goes up. signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the…
  • p. 103 …the immediate path of a Soviet advance probably They would be used against personnel in the…
  • p. 106 …judge the soundness of these Pact planning but representative models of this more advanced factors in…
  • p. 108 …the ability to sustain the momentum of an advance is determined not only by the availability…
  • p. 112 Top e ammunition, bombs, and rockets and some 23,700 tons duration, but could affect the…
  • p. 114 …emergency without the necessity of advanced notices and prior coordination. Thus, before the begin- ning of…
  • p. 119 …The Pact has made advance preparations to activated, their signal support units establish the con- man…
  • p. 126 …advance, Pact planners hope to overrun, penetrate, or bypass NATO 9. Pact planning for the Western…
  • p. 132 …Circumstances permitting, the Pact would build of advance. Depending on the importance of the axis up…
  • p. 133 …then disperse, continuing the barrage, the assaulting infantry and tank units, using advance or exploitation along…
  • p. 134 …Respites from combat would be used to Germany, and advance toward crossings over the restore the…
  • p. 147 …surface ships into the important for maintaining a high rate of advance North Sea prior to…
  • p. 149 …would use force to advance through Yugoslavia to 119. Against the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. attack…
  • p. 150 …overcome Turkish dlefenses and secure the and to advance to the Aegean Sea and from there…
  • p. 151 …In Initial Naval Operations in the Black Sea these exercises six Soviet divisions notionally advance 126…
  • p. 153 …Backfire strike aircraft can cover virtually the several hours in advance of the attack. Soviet ships…
  • p. 157 doubtful ability of ground forces advancing across land-based NATO air defense forces in northern and…
  • p. 172 …The changes will improve radiation weapons and advanced cruise missiles-may the combined-arms capabilities of…
  • p. 173 …The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances…
  • p. 174 …technology is believed to be more advanced speeds than the other Pact fighter-bombers. for these…
  • p. 175 …Soviet Military Trans- survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue…
  • p. 176 …ships, submarines, and aircraft replace less capable units and the technology of cruise missiles is advanced…
  • p. 179 …the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced…
  • p. 180 …for defense beyond 20 nm, as well as more advanced 82. Tactical ASW Missiles. The SS…
  • p. 183 …support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic ture. The VAKSS…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets probably would consider that advances into Soviet territory during the early stages the risks…
command structure could be complete by the early be set up quicker than the equipment it is replacing.
1980s. The unified communications system could be- These developments are expected to continue and
gin to improve the Fact's command capabilities by the spread to the NSWP forces.
mid-1980s, but it is not scheduled for completion until 106. We expect these developments over the next
1990. decade to improve the Pact's ability to:
102. While the Pact is expected to achieve a more - Alert multinational Pact forces during periods of
centralized command system through the creation of international tension.
permanent theater commands, the Soviets probably
will not control the day-to-day peacetime operations - Transfer forces from national to Pact operational
of non-Soviet Warsaw Pact forces. The centralized control.
control structure would, however, enable them more - Control mobilization and the deployment for-
quickly to assume wartime control of Pact forces, once ward of reinforcements.
authorized by NSWP leaders. The theater commands
would also plan wartime operations and control forces - Better coordinate Pact forces and allocations of
during exercises. Hardened command and communi- resources.
cations centers which could be used by theater com- - Simplify planning, reallocation of resources, and
mands have already been constructed, and more are logistic support for the command and control
planned. system through the standardization of communi-
103. The Pact made the decision in 1974 to create cations equipment, computers, and software.
by 1990 an integrated communications system to - Coordinate the mobilization and initial move-
provide high-capacity communications for Pact forces, ments of the various national fronts and the
to include theater commands. This new system-re- allocation of resources among them.
ferred to by the Russian acronym VAKSS-is a civilian
network which also will provide the Pact with its first 107. Radioelectronic Combat. Pact electronic
integrated communications system with the increased warfare capabilities are also expected to be improved
communications capability and connectivity necessary with the deployment of additional existing equipment
to support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic
ture. The VAKSS program is an ambitious one, how- equipment. Some of this advanced electronic equip-
ever, and may meet some resistance from NSWP ment would likely include jammers with a higher
countries-particularly Romania-that could delay power output and more capability to respond in a
completion, even though most of the developments rapidly changing target environment. Some additional
specified for VAKSS probably are within the Soviet capabilities in radiofrequency coverage and target-
and NSWP technological capabilities. handling capacity could also be realized,
104. When completed, the VAKSS system-pri-
marily using buried cables-will become the Pact's
principal communications system for use between
major fixed headquarters. 108. Logistic Support. Improvements in the logis-
tic support field are also likely, although we have little
evidence regarding the extent of Pact plans in this
area. There probably will be increased mechanization
of material-handling procedures, including the com-
puterization of supply and repair parts depots and
automated inventory and requisition control systems.
105. Improved mobile communications equipment There may also be improvements in transportation,
also has been provided to Soviet signal units supporting including greater containerization of supplies and
theater, front, army, and lower echelons of command. equipment, as well as increases in the capacities of
This equipment provides increased channel capacity cargo carriers, particularly in the fields of tactical
and better communications security devices, and it can motor transport.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.