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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
command structure could be complete by the early be set up quicker than the equipment it is replacing.
1980s. The unified communications system could be- These developments are expected to continue and
gin to improve the Fact's command capabilities by the spread to the NSWP forces.
mid-1980s, but it is not scheduled for completion until 106. We expect these developments over the next
1990. decade to improve the Pact's ability to:
102. While the Pact is expected to achieve a more - Alert multinational Pact forces during periods of
centralized command system through the creation of international tension.
permanent theater commands, the Soviets probably
will not control the day-to-day peacetime operations - Transfer forces from national to Pact operational
of non-Soviet Warsaw Pact forces. The centralized control.
control structure would, however, enable them more - Control mobilization and the deployment for-
quickly to assume wartime control of Pact forces, once ward of reinforcements.
authorized by NSWP leaders. The theater commands
would also plan wartime operations and control forces - Better coordinate Pact forces and allocations of
during exercises. Hardened command and communi- resources.
cations centers which could be used by theater com- - Simplify planning, reallocation of resources, and
mands have already been constructed, and more are logistic support for the command and control
planned. system through the standardization of communi-
103. The Pact made the decision in 1974 to create cations equipment, computers, and software.
by 1990 an integrated communications system to - Coordinate the mobilization and initial move-
provide high-capacity communications for Pact forces, ments of the various national fronts and the
to include theater commands. This new system-re- allocation of resources among them.
ferred to by the Russian acronym VAKSS-is a civilian
network which also will provide the Pact with its first 107. Radioelectronic Combat. Pact electronic
integrated communications system with the increased warfare capabilities are also expected to be improved
communications capability and connectivity necessary with the deployment of additional existing equipment
to support the developing centralized command struc- and the acquisition of some advanced electronic
ture. The VAKSS program is an ambitious one, how- equipment. Some of this advanced electronic equip-
ever, and may meet some resistance from NSWP ment would likely include jammers with a higher
countries-particularly Romania-that could delay power output and more capability to respond in a
completion, even though most of the developments rapidly changing target environment. Some additional
specified for VAKSS probably are within the Soviet capabilities in radiofrequency coverage and target-
and NSWP technological capabilities. handling capacity could also be realized,
104. When completed, the VAKSS system-pri-
marily using buried cables-will become the Pact's
principal communications system for use between
major fixed headquarters. 108. Logistic Support. Improvements in the logis-
tic support field are also likely, although we have little
evidence regarding the extent of Pact plans in this
area. There probably will be increased mechanization
of material-handling procedures, including the com-
puterization of supply and repair parts depots and
automated inventory and requisition control systems.
105. Improved mobile communications equipment There may also be improvements in transportation,
also has been provided to Soviet signal units supporting including greater containerization of supplies and
theater, front, army, and lower echelons of command. equipment, as well as increases in the capacities of
This equipment provides increased channel capacity cargo carriers, particularly in the fields of tactical
and better communications security devices, and it can motor transport.
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.