Documents / FOIA release
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
“Sea”60+ pages
o t some Kashin-class destroyers probably will continue to an ammunition support ship, and a repair ship. The be converted to the Modified Kashin class, being pace of these programs, however, still lags the modern- arrned with the SS-N-2c cruise missile. ization of the surface combat flect and will continue to 74. PatrolCombatants and Mine Warfare Units. be a factor retarding extended operations. The capabilities and flexibility of minor combatants 78. Strike Aircraft. During the next several years have been improved with the introduction of the TU-16 Badger aircraft armed with air-to-surface mis- newer classes. Construction of the Nanuchka-class siles will remain numerically the greatest threat to guided-missile patrol boat (PGG) probably will end in surface ships operating within 1,000 to 1,500 nautical about 1980, at which time a new PGG class probably miles of the Soviet landmass, The Backfire, using a will be introduced. Construction of the Matka-class variable flight profile and speeds near Mach 1.5 at missile hydrofoils will probably continue at least high altitude, has a penetration capability against through the 1980s. Construction of the Turya class aircraft carrier defenses significantly superior to that (also a hydrofoil) of submarine chaser probably will of the Badger. The Backfire is currently being pro- end in 1979, with a follow-on expected. New classes of duced at a rate of between two and three per month, both are forecast for introduction in the early 1980s. and to date deployment has been nearly equal be- We also believe that torpedo and patrol boats will be tween the Navy and Long Range Aviation. We project gradually phased out of the Soviet Navy in favor of that production of the Backfire will continue into the small antiship missile and ASW combatants. 1980s. A reconnaissance/ECM version could enter service by the early 1980s," as could a new tanker 75. Amphibious Warfare. Current Soviet amphib- based on the IL-76 Candid, which could be capable of ious ship programs include the new Ivan Rogov class supporting the Backfire. We believe that Soviet Naval of amphibious landing ship and clock (LPD) and Aviation in the three western fleets will have about continued acquisition of the Polish-built Ropucha-class 160 Backfires by 1988. tank landing ship (LST). The 12,500-ton LPD can lift a 500-man battalion landing team with its equipment . 79. Fixed-Wing ASW Aircraft. The TU-142 Bear F ithe only fixed-wing antisubmarine wvarfare aircraft and carry about six helicopters and two or three air cushion vehicles, while the 4,500-ton Ropucha prob- currently in production. We have evidence that a ably can carry about 250 men and 16 tanks. At current variant, incorporating airframe modifications-seen on - - - construction rates, the Soviets would add three or four several earlier models, may be nearing deployment. of the new LPDs and about six Ropuchas by the mid- Given the effort placed on advanced marine vehicles 1980s. During this same period, we expect the Soviet operating in the surface effects zone, the Soviet Navy inventory of Polnoeny-class medium landing ships may also be planning to use the wing-in-ground (WIG) (LSMs) to diminish by some 10 units, primarily by concept in an ASW application. A WIG ASW vehicle transfer to other navies. In addition, East Germany is could enter naval service in the early 1980s. building the 2,700-ton Frosch-class LST at the rate of 80. Fighter/Attack Aircraft. Approximately two about three per year and the Soviets continue to to three YAK-36 Forger V/STOL (vertical and short produce air cushion vehicles for use in amphibious takeoff and landing) aircraft are being produced per assault. month, and production probably will continue until 76. We do not believe that these programs will have about 1980. A new or extensively modified V/STOL a major impact on Soviet amphibious lift capabilities aircraft will probably enter production some time in until the mid-1980s. By that time, however, Pact the early 1980s. SU-17 Fitters are still in production, capabilities to lift amphibious forces in support of land and some of these attack aircraft have been assigned to operations in Europe will significantly improve. the Baltic Fleet. We believe that the Navy will receive about 60 SU-17s by 1983, and some of these may be 77. Auxiliaries. The Soviets are working to im- assigned to the Black Sea Fleet. prove their underway replenishment capabilities. The introduction of a new underway-replenishment ship of 81. Helicopters. The MI-14 Haze is the only naval 35,000 tons, for example, should improve the situation helicopter in production today. Its use aboard ships is somewhat. This ship, which now is operational, has a limited, however, because it does not have folding helicopter pad which also allows replenishment by air. rotors. The Soviets also lack an ASW helicopter which In addition, a new type of cargo ship and a submarine can conduct dipping sonar operations at night or in tender are under construction, and production of "See NIE 11-3/8-78 for a detailed discussion of present and earlier types is continuing, including a water tender, future Backfire production. VI-10
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.