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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 25 …and subsidiary systems such as command and control, radioelectronic combat (REC), and reconnais- sance data link…
  • p. 31 …Some of these submarines might alternatively have missions of minelaying near NATO naval bases or patrolling…
  • p. 33 …The Soviet Union views control of its East Euro- preparerd for any mission, froni defending against…
  • p. 42 …The USSR attributes a littoral of Europe have significant capabilities in either broad range of missions…
  • p. 51 …Improved models of the radio-controlled The SA-9 and ZSU-23-4 are probably with…
  • p. 55 …All Pact countries have well-organized mobili- direct control of the VGK to tactical-level missions…
  • p. 58 …These have pervasive control over the soldier's activities and commanders are expected to be closely…
  • p. 59 …Frontal Aviation missions include counterair, ground attack, Warsaw Pact Fixed-Wing Tactical Aircraft reconnaissance, electronic warfare…
  • p. 62 …Pilot Training and Proficienc. 3Y US stand- facilities, hardening command and control facilities, and establishing pipeline…
  • p. 66 …control system which is designed to provide the coordination necessary to conduct close-in missions when…
  • p. 68 major ground formations is used by tactical controllers conventional weapons or to have an operational weap…
  • p. 71 …countries, are tailored primarily for control of guished by missions: antiship strike, reconnaissance those two seas…
  • p. 75 …missions of the Warsaw Pact's general purpose naval forces are to exercise sea control 110…
  • p. 84 …this mission. The combat radii of Soviet ASM-equipped naval Capabilities for Exercising Sea Control in…
  • p. 85 …signed missions; submarines would not neces-" The holders of the second view are the Director, Defense…
  • p. 87 …the Soviets, Poles, and East Germans other missions. Most bombers would be required for have the…
  • p. 118 …would be detached from national control. Re- - The Western TVD. This theater would include, sidual forces…
  • p. 122 …and control functions is central to Soviet control and integration of Pact military operations. Such groups…
  • p. 134 …against HEAT ammunition, the Soviets have incorpo- control and combat support communication links. rated composite or…
  • p. 135 …The Air Operation have been ascertained from classified missions assigned to the NSWP forces are intended…
  • p. 141 …Pact air forces to perform their primary missions in poor flying weather. ould be the preferred…
  • p. 143 …Others believe that no judgment with flying combat missions at low altitudes or over long any…
  • p. 158 …The establishment of control of the Norwegian drastically the likelihood of a major, preemptive at- and…
  • p. 163 …aircraft carrier probably would be unable secondary mission of antiship attack. The Kiev prob- to cope…
  • p. 175 …be building a mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much…
  • p. 176 …The Pact's early warning network is scheduled current roles of sea control in limited areas…
  • p. 178 …We do not know how the Soviets assess the achieving sea control and in providing support…
  • p. 182 …subma- to control Pact forces once they are released from rines with peripheral missions declines, some…
  • p. 186 …Soviet sea control capabilities gravity to require an early Soviet counteraction. The against US carrier and…
- iop-%ert
aircraft currently being tested are known to have such directed toward fielding advanced air-launched cruise
a capability. Whatever in-flight refueling capability missiles for delivery by Soviet Long Range Aviation
the Soviets develop for their tactical aircraft during bombers are also under way.
the period of this Estimate, therefore, is likely to be
confined to only a small portion of the force. 46. We have no evidence that the Soviets have
operational precision guided bombs but they are con-
40. The Soviets will no doubt pursue improvements ducting tests of unpowered, airdropped vehicles that
in the range and all-weather, day or night, low-level exhibit precision-delivery characteristics. These tests
attack capabilities of the Pact's ground attack forces. indicate that a guided bomb employing a laser illu-
We also expect increased use of ECM (electronic minator mounted on board the launch aircraft could
countermeasures) pods and other ECM equipment, be available in the near future, and that a TV-guided
which should enhance survivability in hostile airspace. bomb could become operational in the early 1980s.
These systems would be accurate within 10 to 20
4. Reconnaissance. Modernization in the recon- mee
naissance component of the Pact's tactical air forces meters.
will continue during the next few years. Deployment 47. The Soviets are developing a minimum of two
of Foxbat B/D aircraft to Soviet reconnaissance units new tactical air-to-surface missiles, the AS-X-11 and
will proceed, and reconnaissance variants of the Flog- AS-X-12, with operational ranges of about 40 to 30
ger and Fencer could appear in the early 1980s. kilometers respectively. These new antiradiation hom-
Improved systems for data processing and transmission ing missiles will probably be deployed by 1980. They
are also expected. will have improved accuracy-within 12 meters-and
42. Helicopter Forces. We expect in the next are expected to lock on targets more quickly than
decade that several additional Soviet, Czechoslovak, previous systems. The AS-X-11 can be targeted against
Polish, and East German combat helicopter regiments, EW/ECI and ground-based air defense (SAM) radars.
primarily for ground attack, will be formed. The The AS-X-12 can be targeted only against ground-.
NSWP regiments probably will be patterned after based air defense (SAM) radars. The Soviets are also
SWPie regiments probmalywilbeequippatternedexpected to begin testing a TV-guided version of their
Soviet regiments and may be equipped with MI-24
lIind armed helicopters. The Romanians may also A- in the near future.
organize a combat helicopter regiment in the next five 48. We have no evidence that the Soviets are
years, using attack and transport helicopters of French developing a new air-to-air missile for their tactical
design- fighters. Development of new missiles for the strategic
43. The Soviets are applying their latest technology air defense forces, however, could have some future
in avionics and air ordnance to helicopter platforms. applications in the tactical air forces.
This could result in improvements to their weapon
systems to increase standoff ranges and enhance the 49. Military Air Transport. Soviet Military Trans-
survivability of the helicopter in an advanced air port Aviation (VTA) will continue to be modernized
defense environment. In addition to assigning broader with newer aircraft, but the size of the force will not
ground attack roles to helicopters, the Soviets are appreciably change. Although overall lift capacity will
expected to equip them to a greater extent for coi- increase, the Soviets do not appear to be building a
mand and control and electronic warfare missions. force capable of siniultaneously lifting much more
The Soviets are also increasing the air-to-air combat than one airborne division or the assault elements of
two divisions.
training of MI-24 Hind crews.
44. The Soviets are developing a new heavy lift 50. The AN-12 Cub medium-range transport will
helicopter, the Halo A. This helicopter is assessed to remain the mainstay of the airlift force, at least into
have almost twice the payload of the current Hook the mid-1980s, although its numbers will continue to
and Ilarke heavy lift helicopters. The new helicopter decrease as the IL-76 Candid enters the force. The
has twin engines and an eight-blade main rotor, and Soviets will continue to rely on the AN-22 Cock, which
could be operational by the early 1980s. is no longer in production, to lift outsized military
equipment. We also expect the Soviets to continue
45. Air Munitions. The Soviets also are developing relying on Aeroflot for airlift augmentation, and this
more advanced air-to-air missiles, tactical air-to-sur- capability will increase as the civil air fleet is
face missiles, and precision guided bombs. Programs modernized.
VI-6
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.