Documents / FOIA release
This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.
“Sea”60+ pages
Top et 23. Artillery. Pact concern with increasing conven- terable mines and, while it is unlikely that such mines tional firepower in general and with the neutralization are currently with Pact artillery units, we believe that of NATO antitank defense in particular is expected to they will be introduced by the mid-1980s. result in continued increases in numbers of artillery 27. Antitank Weapons. Soviet R&D programs for pieces as well as improvements in weapons, target acquisition capabilities, and ammunition. The upgrad- ing of the artillery battery in the Soviet motorized rifle ment of missile systems incorporating semiautomatic or automatic guidance to relieve the gunner of guid- regiment to an artillery battalion-a measure already , ance responsibility, thereby increasing hit probabilities and reducing gunner vulnerability. These programs bility to suppress or neutralize antitank weapons as are expected to result in the fielding of a short-to- well as other targets. As towed artillery is replaced by medium-range man-portable system by the mid-1980s self-propelled (SP) models (with their own armored and a similar heliborne system somewhat earlier. command and reconnaissance vehicles) this capability These systems probably will have increased accuracy will grow further because the newer systems have and warhead effectiveness. The heliborne system better mobility, are more responsive, and provide and wha veess. veloy. better crew protection. By the early 1980s, battalions of 122-mm SP weapons probably will be found in all 28. Armored Personnel Carriers. Production of Soviet BMP-equipped motorized rifle regiments and both the BMP and the BTR-60 is expected to continue May also appear in some BTR-equipped regiments at a steady pace. Soviet motorized rifle divisions are and division artillery regiments. expected to standardize during the 1980s on a mix of 24. Deployment of other SP artillery weapons will one motorized rifle regiment equipped with the BMP also proceed over the next decade. The new nuclear and two with the BTR-60PB. The motorized rifle SP heavy artillery (203-mm guns and 240-mm mor- regiment in tank divisions will be equipped with the tars) will continue to replace older towed weapons in BMP. The East German Army has this same organiza- Soviet heavy artillery brigades and may supplement or tion, while the Czechoslovaks have one field army replace lighter weapons in army artillery regiments equipped according to the Soviet pattern and another and in artillery divisions. If the new heavy artillery in process. Poland has only about 300 BMPs and is pieces are deployed to the Soviet groups of forces, as expected to equip no more than one additional motor- we believe likely, it would break NATO's monopoly ized rifle regiment per year with them. The remainder on nuclear tube artillery in Central Europe and will continue to use older models. A follow-on to the provide the Pact with a capability to respond in kind BTR-60PB, designated the BTR-70, is in production to NATO's use of nuclear tube artillery and to provide and is being assigned to units. These changes will close-in nuclear strikes in support of ground forces. improve the general mobility of Pact ground forces, as well as their capabilities for operating in a chemical, 25. NSWP artillery improvements will lag behind biological, or radiological environment. those of the Soviets. Only a few batteries of the new SP guns and no heavy artillery are in service in the NSWP 29. Ground Force Air Defense Systems. The forces. The number of SP guns in the East German, Soviets are likely to continue the advances which they Czechoslovak, and Polish Armies will increase, but have made in air defense weapons over the last towed models will continue to predominate. decade. Existing systems will no doubt undergo modi- fication and improvements. The SA-9, for example, 26. We have fair evidence that the Soviets are currently mounted on a scout car chassis, will probably working toward development of improved conven- be deployed on a light tracked amphibious carrier that tional munitions (ICMs) for their tube artillery sys- would increase its mobility as well as provide more temns. The Soviets have the technology to develop internal storage space for refire missiles. ICMs for their artillery pieces of 152-mm or larger 30. A follow-on to the ZSU-23/4 is expected in the caliber, but we have not observed them in testing. We 30. a fl- to the Zepe the estimate, however, that by the mid-1980s the Soviets next decade, but probably not before the mid-1980s. will field ICMs with their larger caliber weapons. The This new system, with a caliber estimated at 30 to 40 new 40-mmutipl roket aunher M-177) s mm, will probably have a greater effective range thannew 240-mm multiple rocket launcher (M-1977) is well suited for the delivery of ICMs, and we believe its predecessor. that it is so equipped. The Soviets probably have the 31. We also expect deployment of a successor to the technological base to produce artillery-delivered scat- SA-6, the SA-X-11, probably within the next year. Its VI-4 op
Not linked to a story yet.
FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is under it. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.