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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
would be to destroy NATO's means for waging nu- 17. The Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces would have
clear war. Accordingly, a typical target list for the a key role during large-scale nuclear operations. Al-
Soviet strategic forces would include NATO nuclear though the SRF's medium- and intermediate-range
missile sites; airfields used by nuclear delivery aircraft; ballistic missiles would be assigned a variety of strate-
nuclear weapons storage sites; and command, 'control, gic targets, some sources have indicated they would be
and communications facilities. Other airfields, air primarily used to destroy NATO airfields, air de-
defense facilities, large troop concentrations, and con- fenses, and command and control facilities beyond the
ventional storage depots probably are also targeted, as reach of the Pact's forward-based tactical systems. In
well as some political and economic centers. In all addition to the MRBMs and IRBMs, some of the Soviet
instances, strikes by the strategic forces would be ICBMs might be used against NATO targets in Eu-
coordinated with those by the Pact's tactical nuclear rope. Ballistic missiles launched from the G- and H-
forces. . class submarines are not as accurate as most of the
16. In Europe there are several thousand military, nd-based missiles and probably would be used
political, and economic targets in these categories agamst large targets such as ports.
which the Soviets might wish to cover. Military targets 18. The Long Range Aviation bomber force would
range from those that have been extensively hardened also be used both during the initial nuclear strike and
to those that are highly vulnerable. We estimate that for followup strikes against targets not already de-
there are fewer than 300 hardened targets of signifi- stroyed or attacked. As much as one-third of the LRA
cant military value in the European NATO countries. bomber force would be withheld from use in conven-
About half of these are slightly hardened installa- tional operations in anticipation of escalation to nucle-
tions-such as nuclear weapons storage facilities, some ar conflict. All LRA bombers based in the western
POL storage facilities, and ground force depots. The USSR could reach most potential NATO targets direct-
remainder are moderately hard installations such as ly from their home airfields carrying either bombs or
command posts and the French intermediate-range air-to-surface missiles. For most of these targets, the
missile silos. The great majority of potential targets in unrefueled combat radius of the LRA bombers is
Europe are soft area targets, including NATO air- sufficient to permit the use of indirect routing and
fields, ports, and air defense facilities, low-level flight profiles to evade NATO air defenses.
V-3

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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.