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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 114 …recently halted Soviet air operations from Conakry. These developments will obviously force the 257. Many officers…
  • p. 115 …order to keep other in establishing effective air cover over supporting lines units operational. of communication…
  • p. 185 …The Soviets could elect to provide combat forces scale commitment of manpower and materiel which to…
  • p. 187 …This force is occasionally aug- forces could not be safely transported by sea or air to…
  • p. 188 …a war, but they couldsome naval and air force weapons (including a few recently introduced Flogger…
CHAPTER V
THEATER NUCLEAR OPERATIONS
1. Pact nuclear operations against NATO in the probably would be mated to most tactical ballistic
European theater could involve: missiles at the start of a war and up to one-fourth of
. TSoviet tactical aircraft probably would be withheld
-- factical nuclear wveapons assignedl to Soviet from conventional operations as a nuclear alert force.
ground and air forces in Eastern Europe and in
the USSR and to Soviet naval forces in the three 5. Once the decision to use nuclear weapons was
western Fleets. made, all tactical systems probably would come into
play and the timing and targeting of tactical strikes
- Soviet strategic systems (mainly medium- and would be planned to take advantage of the special
intermediate-range ballistic missiles, bombers of characteristics of each system. The primary objective
Long Range Aviation, and some ballistic missile in Soviet tactical nuclear planning appears to be the
submarines) which are based nthe USSR andu. .
submrin e s) hi c aorueaseint he . a assured destruction of military targets. Limiting collat-
intended chiefly for use against NATO.erld aglontneaohamancocneral damage dues__noatanear__to he_a_main_conce m
3. The scope and specific targets of Pact nuclear
operations would depend on Soviet campaign objec-
tives, the scale of NATO's nuclear use, and other
circumstances. The following discussion is confined to
the likely general characteristics of large-scale theater
nuclear operations by the Pact.
A. Tactical Nuclear Operations
4. The Pact tactical nuclear arsenal consists of
aircraft, missiles, artillery, submarines, and surface
ships. Although nuclear weapons are normally carried
aboard Soviet submarines and some surface ships
during peacetime deployments, the Soviets do not
maintain nuclear-armed tactical missiles or aircraft on
alert during peacetime. During the period of tension
that probably would precede a war in Europe, howev-
er, and during any initial conventional phase of such a
war, the Pact would take steps to ready its tactical air
and missile delivery systems for nuclear operations.
Warheads and bombs probably would be dispersed
from storage sites to delivery units. Nuclear warheads
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.