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Warsaw Pact Forces opposite NATO, NIE 11-14-79, Volume II, the Estimate, CIA/NFAC, 31 January 1979

Central Intelligence Agency · 201 pages · text from the file's own layer

This is Volume II of National Intelligence Estimate 11-14-79, Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite NATO, issued by the Director of Central Intelligence and dated January 1979. The National Foreign Intelligence Board concurred with it. It was the first comprehensive estimate of Pact forces facing NATO since 1971. It covers Pact doctrine, the ground, air, naval, nuclear and chemical forces, command and control, and campaign plans for war in Europe. It judges that Central Europe would be the decisive arena, and it lists Pact weaknesses in pilot training and antisubmarine warfare. The document contains no UFO material.

  • p. 20 …Unlike NATO, the Warsaw Pact does not have theater headquarters in being in peacetime, although hardened…
  • p. 21 …control of the Western and Southwestern TVD headquarters-often called High Commands by the Soviets. The…
  • p. 26 …links could be established to theater-level headquarters and to supporting strategic cornmands. Communications, between Moscow…
  • p. 35 …Surprise in the known: ' Soviet view can be achieved through many means- Administrative Structure HeadQuartered in…
  • p. 55 …The Soviets Headquarters in Moscow and are considered strategic maintain a total of 15 such divisions…
  • p. 72 …PO A ; re -t { - Black Sea Fleet ROMANI A -UGM (Dsevastopo - BUGRAFleet Caspian headquarters Black Sea…
  • p. 74 …Readiness from Naval Headquarters in Moscow, from fleet Home Waters 40 Operable headquarters,.or by command…
  • p. 114 …reported to fleet headquarters, a practice we did not 259. Forward Basing. To support their worldwide…
  • p. 117 …Some do not have Ground Forces headquarters; some have d. Not all have naval commands. Military…
  • p. 118 …in Soviet maritime strategy is the MTVD, headquarters in being in peacetime. Hardened com- the Maritime…
  • p. 119 …The headquarters staffs and communications after full mobilization; a more typical front would support elements of…
  • p. 122 …Representatives of the Headquarters of the 14. The Soviets intend to maintain centralized con- Warsaw Pact…
  • p. 182 …The number of older ballistic missile subma- links could be established to theater-level headquarters rincs…
  • p. 183 …communications system for use between major fixed headquarters. 108. Logistic Support. Improvements in the logis- tic…
CHAPTER V
THEATER NUCLEAR OPERATIONS
1. Pact nuclear operations against NATO in the probably would be mated to most tactical ballistic
European theater could involve: missiles at the start of a war and up to one-fourth of
. TSoviet tactical aircraft probably would be withheld
-- factical nuclear wveapons assignedl to Soviet from conventional operations as a nuclear alert force.
ground and air forces in Eastern Europe and in
the USSR and to Soviet naval forces in the three 5. Once the decision to use nuclear weapons was
western Fleets. made, all tactical systems probably would come into
play and the timing and targeting of tactical strikes
- Soviet strategic systems (mainly medium- and would be planned to take advantage of the special
intermediate-range ballistic missiles, bombers of characteristics of each system. The primary objective
Long Range Aviation, and some ballistic missile in Soviet tactical nuclear planning appears to be the
submarines) which are based nthe USSR andu. .
submrin e s) hi c aorueaseint he . a assured destruction of military targets. Limiting collat-
intended chiefly for use against NATO.erld aglontneaohamancocneral damage dues__noatanear__to he_a_main_conce m
3. The scope and specific targets of Pact nuclear
operations would depend on Soviet campaign objec-
tives, the scale of NATO's nuclear use, and other
circumstances. The following discussion is confined to
the likely general characteristics of large-scale theater
nuclear operations by the Pact.
A. Tactical Nuclear Operations
4. The Pact tactical nuclear arsenal consists of
aircraft, missiles, artillery, submarines, and surface
ships. Although nuclear weapons are normally carried
aboard Soviet submarines and some surface ships
during peacetime deployments, the Soviets do not
maintain nuclear-armed tactical missiles or aircraft on
alert during peacetime. During the period of tension
that probably would precede a war in Europe, howev-
er, and during any initial conventional phase of such a
war, the Pact would take steps to ready its tactical air
and missile delivery systems for nuclear operations.
Warheads and bombs probably would be dispersed
from storage sites to delivery units. Nuclear warheads
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FOIA release, from the cia-readingroom collection. The PDF is mirrored here; the original link is above. 201 pages are in the text index: search them above, or from the library's search.